# The Economics of p(doom): Scenarios of Existential Risk and Economic Growth in the Age of Transformative AI

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.07341 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.07341/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 97 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Mar 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Alignment faking in large language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.14093/) (2024)
- [Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.04585/) (2018)
- [Optimal Policies Tend to Seek Power](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01683/) (2019)
- [Consequences of Misaligned AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.03896/) (2021)
- [Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.02843/) (2024)
- [Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.16946/) (2025)
- [Provably safe systems: the only path to controllable AGI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.01933/) (2023)
- [TASRA: a Taxonomy and Analysis of Societal-Scale Risks from AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.06924/) (2023)
- [Two Types of AI Existential Risk: Decisive and Accumulative](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.07836/) (2024)
- [Scenarios for the Transition to AGI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.12107/) (2024)
- [Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.14870/) (2025)
- [Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.02519/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Steerability of Instrumental-Convergence Tendencies in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.01584/) (2026)
- [The Paradox of Doom: Acknowledging Extinction Risk Reduces the Incentive to Prevent It](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.04855/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have led to a wide range of predictions about its long-term impact on humanity. A central focus is the potential emergence of transformative AI (TAI), eventually capable of outperforming humans in all economically valuable tasks and fully automating labor. Discussed scenarios range from unprecedented economic growth and abundance ("post-scarcity" or "cornucopia") to human extinction after a misaligned TAI takes over ("AI doom"). However, the probabilities and implications of these scenarios remain highly uncertain. We contribute by organizing the various scenarios and evaluating their associated existential risks and economic outcomes in terms of aggregate welfare. Our results imply that even low-probability catastrophic outcomes justify substantial investments in AI safety and alignment research. This result highlights that current global efforts in AI safety and alignment research are insufficient relative to the scale and urgency of the risks posed by TAI.