# Identifying Dealbreakers and Robust Policies for the Energy Transition Amid Unexpected Events

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.05735 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.05735/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 1 of its 75 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Feb 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Streamlining Energy Transition Scenarios to Key Policy Decisions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.06625/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Disruptions in energy imports, backlash in social acceptance, and novel technologies failing to develop are unexpected events that are often overlooked in energy planning, despite their ability to jeopardize the energy transition. We propose a method to explore unexpected events and assess their impact on the transition pathway of a large-scale whole-energy system. First, we evaluate unexpected events assuming "perfect foresight", where decision-makers can anticipate such events in advance. This allows us to identify dealbreakers, i.e., conditions that make the transition infeasible. Then, we assess the events under "limited foresight" to evaluate the robustness of early-stage decisions against unforeseen unexpected events and the costs associated with managing them. A case study for Belgium demonstrates that a lack of electrofuel imports in 2050 is the main dealbreaker, while accelerating the deployment of renewables is the most robust policy. Our transferable method can help policymakers identify key dealbreakers and devise robust energy transition policies.