# From Small to Large Language Models: Revisiting the Federalist Papers

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.01869 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01869/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 23 of its 70 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Feb 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 23 of 23)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [RoBERTa: A Robustly Optimized BERT Pretraining Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.11692/) (2019)
- [Sentence-BERT: Sentence Embeddings using Siamese BERT-Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.10084/) (2019)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [BART: Denoising Sequence-to-Sequence Pre-training for Natural Language Generation, Translation, and Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.13461/) (2019)
- [Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.00667/) (2022)
- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [Efficient Estimation of Word Representations in Vector Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1301.3781/) (2013)
- [Distributed Representations of Words and Phrases and their Compositionality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1310.4546/) (2013)
- [Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15556/) (2022)
- [A Survey of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.18223/) (2023)
- [How transferable are features in deep neural networks?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1411.1792/) (2014)
- [A Comprehensive Survey on Transfer Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02685/) (2019)
- [Reconciling modern machine learning practice and the bias-variance trade-off](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.11118/) (2018)
- [Deep Double Descent: Where Bigger Models and More Data Hurt](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02292/) (2019)
- [Grokking: Generalization Beyond Overfitting on Small Algorithmic Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.02177/) (2022)
- [Small Language Models: Survey, Measurements, and Insights](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.15790/) (2024)
- [Were RNNs All We Needed?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.01201/) (2024)
- [Adaptive Uncertainty Quantification for Generative AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.08990/) (2024)
- [Higher Criticism for Discriminating Word-Frequency Tables and Testing Authorship](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.01208/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Differentiable Filtering for Learning Hidden Markov Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.10571/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

For a long time, the authorship of the Federalist Papers had been a subject of inquiry and debate, not only by linguists and historians but also by statisticians. In what was arguably the first Bayesian case study, Mosteller and Wallace (1963) provided the first statistical evidence for attributing all disputed papers to Madison. Our paper revisits this historical dataset but from a lens of modern language models, both small and large. We review some of the more popular Large Language Model (LLM) tools and examine them from a statistical point of view in the context of text classification. We investigate whether, without any attempt to fine-tune, the general embedding constructs can be useful for stylometry and attribution. We explain differences between various word/phrase embeddings and discuss how to aggregate them in a document. Contrary to our expectations, we exemplify that dimension expansion with word embeddings may not always be beneficial for attribution relative to dimension reduction with topic embeddings. Our experiments demonstrate that default LLM embeddings (even after manual fine-tuning) may not consistently improve authorship attribution accuracy. Instead, Bayesian analysis with topic embeddings trained on ``function words" yields superior out-of-sample classification performance. This suggests that traditional (small) statistical language models, with their interpretability and solid theoretical foundation, can offer significant advantages in authorship attribution tasks. The code used in this analysis is available at github.com/sowonjeong/slm-to-llm