# Efficient Test-Time Scaling via Self-Calibration

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.00031 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.00031/

## Key facts

- Cited by 75 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 54 of its 63 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Feb 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 54)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Think you have Solved Question Answering? Try ARC, the AI2 Reasoning Challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05457/) (2018)
- [Deep reinforcement learning from human preferences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03741/) (2017)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [Self-Refine: Iterative Refinement with Self-Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17651/) (2023)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [Can a Suit of Armor Conduct Electricity? A New Dataset for Open Book Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.02789/) (2018)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [CommonsenseQA: A Question Answering Challenge Targeting Commonsense Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.00937/) (2018)
- [Challenging BIG-Bench Tasks and Whether Chain-of-Thought Can Solve Them](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.09261/) (2022)
- [s1: Simple test-time scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19393/) (2025)
- [Large Language Monkeys: Scaling Inference Compute with Repeated Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21787/) (2024)
- [Teaching Large Language Models to Self-Debug](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.05128/) (2023)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Are NLP Models really able to Solve Simple Math Word Problems?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.07191/) (2021)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Crowdsourcing Multiple Choice Science Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06209/) (2017)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [Large Language Models Can Self-Improve](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.11610/) (2022)
- [MathQA: Towards Interpretable Math Word Problem Solving with Operation-Based Formalisms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.13319/) (2019)
- [Do NOT Think That Much for 2+3=? On the Overthinking of o1-Like LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.21187/) (2024)
- [Generative Verifiers: Reward Modeling as Next-Token Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.15240/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 75)

- [Stop Overthinking: A Survey on Efficient Reasoning for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.16419/) (2025)
- [Towards Reasoning Era: A Survey of Long Chain-of-Thought for Reasoning Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09567/) (2025)
- [R-Zero: Self-Evolving Reasoning LLM from Zero Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.05004/) (2025)
- [A Survey on Test-Time Scaling in Large Language Models: What, How, Where, and How Well?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.24235/) (2025)
- [General-Reasoner: Advancing LLM Reasoning Across All Domains](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.14652/) (2025)
- [A Survey of Efficient Reasoning for Large Reasoning Models: Language, Multimodality, and Beyond](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.21614/) (2025)
- [Efficient Reasoning Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.10903/) (2025)
- [Parallel-R1: Towards Parallel Thinking via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.07980/) (2025)
- [VisPlay: Self-Evolving Vision-Language Models from Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.15661/) (2025)
- [Long-Short Chain-of-Thought Mixture Supervised Fine-Tuning Eliciting Efficient Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.03469/) (2025)
- [Trust, But Verify: A Self-Verification Approach to Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.13445/) (2025)
- [Harnessing the Reasoning Economy: A Survey of Efficient Reasoning for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.24377/) (2025)
- [Retro-Search: Exploring Untaken Paths for Deeper and Efficient Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.04383/) (2025)
- [UniGen: Enhanced Training & Test-Time Strategies for Unified Multimodal Understanding and Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.14682/) (2025)
- [Reasoning on a Budget: A Survey of Adaptive and Controllable Test-Time Compute in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.02076/) (2025)
- [The LLM Already Knows: Estimating LLM-Perceived Question Difficulty via Hidden Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.12886/) (2025)
- [A Comprehensive Survey on Trustworthiness in Reasoning with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.03871/) (2025)
- [Thought calibration: Efficient and confident test-time scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.18404/) (2025)
- [LoVeC: Reinforcement Learning for Better Verbalized Confidence in Long-Form Generations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23912/) (2025)
- [Generative AI Act II: Test Time Scaling Drives Cognition Engineering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.13828/) (2025)
- [Guiding Reasoning in Small Language Models with LLM Assistance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.09923/) (2025)
- [Can LLMs Predict Their Own Failures? Self-Awareness via Internal Circuits](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.20578/) (2025)
- [Parallel-Probe: Towards Efficient Parallel Thinking via 2D Probing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.03845/) (2026)
- [Efficient Test-Time Scaling for Small Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.03574/) (2025)
- [AALC: Large Language Model Efficient Reasoning via Adaptive Accuracy-Length Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.20160/) (2025)
- [CrossWordBench: Evaluating the Reasoning Capabilities of LLMs and LVLMs with Controllable Puzzle Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.00043/) (2025)
- [LLMs Improving LLMs: Agentic Discovery for Test-Time Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.08083/) (2026)
- [Revisiting Test-Time Scaling: A Survey and a Diversity-Aware Method for Efficient Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.04611/) (2025)
- [Optimal Self-Consistency for Efficient Reasoning with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.12309/) (2025)
- [VLA-ATTC: Adaptive Test-Time Compute for VLA Models with Relative Action Critic Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.01194/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require a fixed number of sampling responses for each query, regardless of its complexity. This could result in wasted computation for simpler questions and insufficient exploration for more challenging ones. In this work, we argue that model confidence of responses can be used for improving the efficiency of test-time scaling. Unfortunately, LLMs are known to be overconfident and provide unreliable confidence estimation. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Calibration by distilling Self-Consistency-derived confidence into the model itself. This enables reliable confidence estimation at test time with one forward pass. We then design confidence-based efficient test-time scaling methods to handle queries of various difficulty, such as Early-Stopping for Best-of-N and Self-Consistency with calibrated confidence. Experiments on three LLMs across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, applying confidence-based Early Stopping to Best-of-N improves MathQA accuracy from 81.0 to 83.6 with a sample budget of 16 responses, indicating the efficacy of confidence-based sampling strategy at inference time.