# Predicting clinical outcomes from patient care pathways represented with temporal knowledge graphs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.21138 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.21138/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Feb 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Delving Deep into Rectifiers: Surpassing Human-Level Performance on ImageNet Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.01852/) (2015)
- [Modeling Relational Data with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06103/) (2017)
- [Knowledge Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.02320/) (2020)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.07962/) (2020)
- [Representation Learning on Graphs: Methods and Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.05584/) (2017)
- [A Comprehensive Survey of Graph Embedding: Problems, Techniques and Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.07604/) (2017)
- [NodePiece: Compositional and Parameter-Efficient Representations of Large Knowledge Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.12144/) (2021)
- [Temporal Knowledge Graph Completion: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.08236/) (2022)
- [A Survey on Knowledge Graph Embeddings with Literals: Which model links better Literal-ly?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.12507/) (2019)
- [Incorporating Literals into Knowledge Graph Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.00934/) (2018)
- [Of Quantiles and Expectiles: Consistent Scoring Functions, Choquet Representations, and Forecast Rankings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.08195/) (2015)
- [Comprehensive Analysis of Negative Sampling in Knowledge Graph Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.10140/) (2022)
- [An embedding-based distance for temporal graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.12843/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Clinical Data Goes MEDS? Let's OWL make sense of it](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.04164/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Background: With the increasing availability of healthcare data, predictive modeling finds many applications in the biomedical domain, such as the evaluation of the level of risk for various conditions, which in turn can guide clinical decision making. However, it is unclear how knowledge graph data representations and their embedding, which are competitive in some settings, could be of interest in biomedical predictive modeling. Method: We simulated synthetic but realistic data of patients with intracranial aneurysm and experimented on the task of predicting their clinical outcome. We compared the performance of various classification approaches on tabular data versus a graph-based representation of the same data. Next, we investigated how the adopted schema for representing first individual data and second temporal data impacts predictive performances. Results: Our study illustrates that in our case, a graph representation and Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) embeddings reach the best performance for a predictive task from observational data. We emphasize the importance of the adopted schema and of the consideration of literal values in the representation of individual data. Our study also moderates the relative impact of various time encoding on GCN performance.