# Can LLMs Explain Themselves Counterfactually?

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.18156 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18156/

## Key facts

- Cited by 10 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 50 of its 76 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Feb 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 50)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Direct Preference Optimization: Your Language Model is Secretly a Reward Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18290/) (2023)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- ["Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04938/) (2016)
- [On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07258/) (2021)
- [Pointer Sentinel Mixture Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.07843/) (2016)
- [Locating and Editing Factual Associations in GPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05262/) (2022)
- [A Broad-Coverage Challenge Corpus for Sentence Understanding through Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.05426/) (2017)
- [Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12712/) (2023)
- [Interpretability Beyond Feature Attribution: Quantitative Testing with Concept Activation Vectors (TCAV)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.11279/) (2017)
- [Explanation in Artificial Intelligence: Insights from the Social Sciences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.07269/) (2017)
- [Language Models Don't Always Say What They Think: Unfaithful Explanations in Chain-of-Thought Prompting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.04388/) (2023)
- [Counterfactual Explanations without Opening the Black Box: Automated Decisions and the GDPR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00399/) (2017)
- [A Survey Of Methods For Explaining Black Box Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.01933/) (2018)
- [Measuring Faithfulness in Chain-of-Thought Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.13702/) (2023)
- [The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.13734/) (2023)
- [Explaining Machine Learning Classifiers through Diverse Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07697/) (2019)
- [Towards Faithfully Interpretable NLP Systems: How should we define and evaluate faithfulness?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.03685/) (2020)
- [ERASER: A Benchmark to Evaluate Rationalized NLP Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.03429/) (2019)
- [Explaining Explanations: An Overview of Interpretability of Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.00069/) (2018)
- [Harnessing the Power of LLMs in Practice: A Survey on ChatGPT and Beyond](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.13712/) (2023)
- [Explainability for Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.01029/) (2023)
- [How Language Model Hallucinations Can Snowball](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.13534/) (2023)
- [TRAK: Attributing Model Behavior at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.14186/) (2023)
- [The Impact of AI on Developer Productivity: Evidence from GitHub Copilot](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.06590/) (2023)
- [Evaluating and Mitigating Discrimination in Language Model Decisions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03689/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Measuring What LLMs Think They Do: SHAP Faithfulness and Deployability on Financial Tabular Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.00163/) (2025)
- [Would this change your answer? Evaluating Explanations of LLM Behavior In The Wild with Counterfactual Experiments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.16747/) (2026)
- [Support-Contra Asymmetry in LLM Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.21884/) (2025)
- [DRIV-EX: Counterfactual Explanations for Driving LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.00696/) (2026)
- [Faithful, Sufficient and Understandable: Rethinking Graph Counterfactual Explanations via Discrete Diffusion Inversion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.12083/) (2026)
- [Does Using Counterfactual Help LLMs Explain Textual Importance in Classification?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.04031/) (2025)
- [No Judgment Without a Reason: Counterfactual Receipts for Versioned AI Evaluators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.20938/) (2026)
- [A Polyphonic Conception of AI Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.36079/) (2026)
- [Towards Fast and Disentangled Counterfactuals for Visual Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.00895/) (2026)
- [How the Audit Rule Shapes Faithful Factor Explanations in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.01514/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Explanations are an important tool for gaining insights into the behavior of ML models, calibrating user trust and ensuring regulatory compliance. Past few years have seen a flurry of post-hoc methods for generating model explanations, many of which involve computing model gradients or solving specially designed optimization problems. However, owing to the remarkable reasoning abilities of Large Language Model (LLMs), self-explanation, that is, prompting the model to explain its outputs has recently emerged as a new paradigm. In this work, we study a specific type of self-explanations, self-generated counterfactual explanations (SCEs). We design tests for measuring the efficacy of LLMs in generating SCEs. Analysis over various LLM families, model sizes, temperature settings, and datasets reveals that LLMs sometimes struggle to generate SCEs. Even when they do, their prediction often does not agree with their own counterfactual reasoning.