# Unveiling Downstream Performance Scaling of LLMs: A Clustering-Based Perspective

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.17262 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.17262/

## Key facts

- Cited by 7 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 43 of its 63 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Feb 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 43)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09864/) (2021)
- [Program Synthesis with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07732/) (2021)
- [Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15556/) (2022)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12712/) (2023)
- [Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07682/) (2022)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [MMLU-Pro: A More Robust and Challenging Multi-Task Language Understanding Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01574/) (2024)
- [Challenging BIG-Bench Tasks and Whether Chain-of-Thought Can Solve Them](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.09261/) (2022)
- [GLU Variants Improve Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.05202/) (2020)
- [GShard: Scaling Giant Models with Conditional Computation and Automatic Sharding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.16668/) (2020)
- [Root Mean Square Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.07467/) (2019)
- [GQA: Training Generalized Multi-Query Transformer Models from Multi-Head Checkpoints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.13245/) (2023)
- [DeepSeek-V2: A Strong, Economical, and Efficient Mixture-of-Experts Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.04434/) (2024)
- [Scaling Vision Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.04560/) (2021)
- [DROP: A Reading Comprehension Benchmark Requiring Discrete Reasoning Over Paragraphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.00161/) (2019)
- [AGIEval: A Human-Centric Benchmark for Evaluating Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.06364/) (2023)
- [Are Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models a Mirage?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.15004/) (2023)
- [Scaling Laws for Autoregressive Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.14701/) (2020)
- [Tensor Programs V: Tuning Large Neural Networks via Zero-Shot Hyperparameter Transfer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.03466/) (2022)
- [Scaling Laws for Transfer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.01293/) (2021)
- [Revisiting Neural Scaling Laws in Language and Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.06640/) (2022)
- [Observational Scaling Laws and the Predictability of Language Model Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.10938/) (2024)
- [Scaling Laws with Vocabulary: Larger Models Deserve Larger Vocabularies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13623/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [xbench: Tracking Agents Productivity Scaling with Profession-Aligned Real-World Evaluations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.13651/) (2025)
- [Learning to Orchestrate Agents in Natural Language with the Conductor](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.04388/) (2025)
- [Predictable Scale: Part II, Farseer: A Refined Scaling Law in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.10972/) (2025)
- [Prescriptive Scaling Reveals the Evolution of Language Model Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.15327/) (2026)
- [Fast and Accurate Probing of In-Training LLMs' Downstream Performances](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.01025/) (2026)
- [Scaling-Aware Data Selection for End-to-End Autonomous Driving Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.08366/) (2026)
- [CausalMix: Data Mixture as Causal Inference for Language Model Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.01104/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The escalating scale and cost of Large Language Models (LLMs) training necessitate accurate pre-training prediction of downstream task performance for comprehensive understanding of scaling properties. This is challenged by: 1) the emergence phenomenon, where unpredictable capabilities appearing suddenly at critical model scales; and 2) uneven task difficulty and inconsistent performance scaling patterns, leading to high metric variability. Current prediction methods lack accuracy and reliability. We propose a Clustering-On-Difficulty (COD) framework for downstream performance prediction. The COD framework clusters tasks by their difficulty scaling features, thereby constructing a more stable and predictable task subset that exhibits well-behaved scaling characteristics with the increase of compute budget. We adopt a performance scaling law to predict cluster-wise performance with theoretical support. Predictable subset performance acts as an intermediate predictor for the full evaluation set. We further derive a mapping function to accurately extrapolate the performance of the subset to the full set. Applied to an LLM with 70B parameters, COD achieved a 1.55% average prediction error across eight key LLM benchmarks, thus providing actionable insights for scaling properties and training monitoring during LLM pre-training.