# Understanding the Uncertainty of LLM Explanations: A Perspective Based on Reasoning Topology

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.17026 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.17026/

## Key facts

- Cited by 25 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Knowledge- and tool-augmented reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 39 of its 54 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Feb 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Knowledge- and tool-augmented reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/knowledge-and-tool-augmented-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 39)

- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [A Survey of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.18223/) (2023)
- [BoolQ: Exploring the Surprising Difficulty of Natural Yes/No Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10044/) (2019)
- [DeBERTa: Decoding-enhanced BERT with Disentangled Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.03654/) (2020)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Towards A Rigorous Science of Interpretable Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.08608/) (2017)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [Measuring Faithfulness in Chain-of-Thought Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.13702/) (2023)
- [A Comprehensive Overview of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.06435/) (2023)
- [A Simple Baseline for Bayesian Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.02476/) (2019)
- [GSM-Symbolic: Understanding the Limitations of Mathematical Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.05229/) (2024)
- [e-SNLI: Natural Language Inference with Natural Language Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.01193/) (2018)
- [Med-BERT: pre-trained contextualized embeddings on large-scale structured electronic health records for disease prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.12833/) (2020)
- [Probabilistic Backpropagation for Scalable Learning of Bayesian Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.05336/) (2015)
- [Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19187/) (2023)
- [graph2vec: Learning Distributed Representations of Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.05005/) (2017)
- [A Careful Examination of Large Language Model Performance on Grade School Arithmetic](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.00332/) (2024)
- [Shifting Attention to Relevance: Towards the Predictive Uncertainty Quantification of Free-Form Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01379/) (2023)
- [OpenMathInstruct-1: A 1.8 Million Math Instruction Tuning Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.10176/) (2024)
- [Multi-Step Reasoning with Large Language Models, a Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.11511/) (2024)
- [Quantifying Uncertainty in Answers from any Language Model and Enhancing their Trustworthiness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.16175/) (2023)
- [To Believe or Not to Believe Your LLM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.02543/) (2024)
- [A General Framework for Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.06890/) (2019)
- [Interpretable Deep Learning: Interpretation, Interpretability, Trustworthiness, and Beyond](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.10689/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 25 of 25)

- [Uncertainty Quantification and Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.15850/) (2025)
- [TokUR: Token-Level Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Model Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.11737/) (2025)
- [An overview of model uncertainty and variability in LLM-based sentiment analysis. Challenges, mitigation strategies and the role of explainability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.04462/) (2025)
- [Conformity Dynamics in LLM Multi-Agent Systems: The Roles of Topology and Self-Social Weighting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.05606/) (2026)
- [Generative AI in Transportation Planning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.07158/) (2025)
- [Every Response Counts: Quantifying Uncertainty of LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems through Tensor Decomposition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.08708/) (2026)
- [Large Language Newsvendor: Decision Biases and Cognitive Mechanisms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.12552/) (2025)
- [Recurrent Confidence Chain: Temporal-Aware Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.13368/) (2026)
- [Unveiling the Entropy Dynamics of Chain-of-Thought Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.02020/) (2026)
- [All Roads Lead to Rome: Graph-Based Confidence Estimation for Large Language Model Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.12908/) (2025)
- [SELFDOUBT: Uncertainty Quantification for Reasoning LLMs via the Hedge-to-Verify Ratio](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.06389/) (2026)
- [From Passive Metric to Active Signal: The Evolving Role of Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.15690/) (2026)
- [Diagnosing Multi-step Reasoning Failures in Black-box LLMs via Stepwise Confidence Attribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.19228/) (2026)
- [A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.19868/) (2026)
- [Beyond statistical significance: Quantifying uncertainty and statistical variability in multilingual and multitask NLP evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.22612/) (2025)
- ["I May Not Have Articulated Myself Clearly": Diagnosing Dynamic Instability in LLM Reasoning at Inference Time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.02863/) (2026)
- [Monitoring Web Agents Without Internal Signals: Observable Trajectories and Key-Step Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.02057/) (2026)
- [Fact-Checking with Large Language Models via Probabilistic Certainty and Consistency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.02574/) (2026)
- [A Formal Framework for Uncertainty Analysis of Text Generation with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.26363/) (2026)
- [CoE: Collaborative Entropy for Uncertainty Quantification in Agentic Multi-LLM Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.28360/) (2026)
- [TUR-DPO: Topology- and Uncertainty-Aware Direct Preference Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.00224/) (2026)
- [Position: Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs is Just Unsupervised Clustering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.19220/) (2026)
- [Can We Trust LLM's Logic? Quantifying Uncertainty, Coherence, and Robustness via a Graph-Based Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.08017/) (2026)
- [GUT: Quantifying and Optimizing the Reasoning Uncertainty of LLMs via Graph Complexity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.05284/) (2026)
- [Argument Graph Uncertainty: Quantifying Uncertainty from the Logical Structure of Reasoning Chains](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.20328/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Understanding the uncertainty in large language model (LLM) explanations is important for evaluating their faithfulness and reasoning consistency, and thus provides insights into the reliability of LLM's output regarding a question. In this work, we propose a novel framework that quantifies uncertainty in LLM explanations through a reasoning topology perspective. By designing a structural elicitation strategy, we guide the LLMs to frame the explanations of an answer into a graph topology. This process decomposes the explanations into the knowledge related sub-questions and topology-based reasoning structures, which allows us to quantify uncertainty not only at the semantic level but also from the reasoning path. It further brings convenience to assess knowledge redundancy and provide interpretable insights into the reasoning process. Our method offers a systematic way to interpret the LLM reasoning, analyze limitations, and provide guidance for enhancing robustness and faithfulness. This work pioneers the use of graph-structured uncertainty measurement in LLM explanations and demonstrates the potential of topology-based quantification.