# CER: Confidence Enhanced Reasoning in LLMs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.14634 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.14634/

## Key facts

- Cited by 17 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 42 of its 56 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 Feb 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 42)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11916/) (2022)
- [HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.09600/) (2018)
- [Mistral 7B](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06825/) (2023)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Least-to-Most Prompting Enables Complex Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.10625/) (2022)
- [Program of Thoughts Prompting: Disentangling Computation from Reasoning for Numerical Reasoning Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.12588/) (2022)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [MathQA: Towards Interpretable Math Word Problem Solving with Operation-Based Formalisms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.13319/) (2019)
- [The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.13734/) (2023)
- [OLMo: Accelerating the Science of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.00838/) (2024)
- [Decomposed Prompting: A Modular Approach for Solving Complex Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02406/) (2022)
- [Weight Uncertainty in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05424/) (2015)
- [Large Language Models are Better Reasoners with Self-Verification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09561/) (2022)
- [Demystifying Prompts in Language Models via Perplexity Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.04037/) (2022)
- [Chain-of-Thought Reasoning Without Prompting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.10200/) (2024)
- [Do Large Language Models Latently Perform Multi-Hop Reasoning?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.16837/) (2024)
- [Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04696/) (2024)
- [Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic Similarities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.20003/) (2024)
- [Deductive Verification of Chain-of-Thought Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03872/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Towards Reasoning Era: A Survey of Long Chain-of-Thought for Reasoning Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09567/) (2025)
- [Generative to Agentic AI: Survey, Conceptualization, and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.18875/) (2025)
- [Debate Only When Necessary: Adaptive Multiagent Collaboration for Efficient LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.05047/) (2025)
- [TokUR: Token-Level Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Model Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.11737/) (2025)
- [Guided by Gut: Efficient Test-Time Scaling with Reinforced Intrinsic Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.20325/) (2025)
- [Selective Expert Guidance for Effective and Diverse Exploration in Reinforcement Learning of LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.04140/) (2025)
- [Beyond Memory Majority: Latent-Source Reasoning for Multi-Agent Memory Arbitration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.19701/) (2026)
- [From Passive Metric to Active Signal: The Evolving Role of Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.15690/) (2026)
- [Learning When to Sample: Confidence-Aware Selective Sampling for Efficient Chain-of-Thought Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.08999/) (2026)
- [Quantifying Faithful Confidence Expression in Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.03969/) (2026)
- [Bonsai: Interpretable Tree-Adaptive Grounded Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.03640/) (2025)
- [Confidence-Aware Alignment Makes Reasoning LLMs More Reliable](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.07353/) (2026)
- [Shared Doubt: Zero-Shot Cross-Lingual Confidence Estimation for Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.31220/) (2026)
- [CMaP-SAM: Contraction Mapping Prior for SAM-driven Few-shot Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.05049/) (2025)
- [Training-Free Object-Background Compositional T2I via Dynamic Spatial Guidance and Multi-Path Pruning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.09850/) (2026)
- [Confidence Composition for Multiagent Language Model Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.13591/) (2026)
- [Frustratingly Easy Majority Voting Using Length Conditioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.19890/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Ensuring the reliability of Large Language Models (LLMs) in complex reasoning tasks remains a formidable challenge, particularly in scenarios that demand precise mathematical calculations and knowledge-intensive open-domain generation. In this work, we introduce an uncertainty-aware framework designed to enhance the accuracy of LLM responses by systematically incorporating model confidence at critical decision points. We propose an approach that encourages multi-step reasoning in LLMs and quantify the confidence of intermediate answers such as numerical results in mathematical reasoning and proper nouns in open-domain generation. Then, the overall confidence of each reasoning chain is evaluated based on confidence of these critical intermediate steps. Finally, we aggregate the answer of generated response paths in a way that reflects the reliability of each generated content (as opposed to self-consistency in which each generated chain contributes equally to majority voting). We conducted extensive experiments in five datasets, three mathematical datasets and two open-domain datasets, using four LLMs. The results consistently validate the effectiveness of our novel confidence aggregation method, leading to an accuracy improvement of up to 7.4% and 5.8% over baseline approaches in math and open-domain generation tasks, respectively. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ Aquasar11/CER.