# There are no Champions in Supervised Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.14045 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.14045/

## Key facts

- Cited by 8 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 50 of its 78 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Feb 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 50)

- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [Optuna: A Next-generation Hyperparameter Optimization Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.10902/) (2019)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [MnasNet: Platform-Aware Neural Architecture Search for Mobile](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.11626/) (2018)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10437/) (2019)
- [Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02592/) (2024)
- [Enhancing the Locality and Breaking the Memory Bottleneck of Transformer on Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00235/) (2019)
- [Large Language Models Are Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07820/) (2023)
- [Non-stationary Transformers: Exploring the Stationarity in Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14415/) (2022)
- [SCINet: Time Series Modeling and Forecasting with Sample Convolution and Interaction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09305/) (2021)
- [Long-term Forecasting with TiDE: Time-series Dense Encoder](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08424/) (2023)
- [xLSTM: Extended Long Short-Term Memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.04517/) (2024)
- [Financial Time Series Forecasting with Deep Learning : A Systematic Literature Review: 2005-2019](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.13288/) (2019)
- [TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20150/) (2024)
- [TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19072/) (2024)
- [When Do Neural Nets Outperform Boosted Trees on Tabular Data?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.02997/) (2023)
- [GIFT-Eval: A Benchmark For General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10393/) (2024)
- [Timer: Generative Pre-trained Transformers Are Large Time Series Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02368/) (2024)
- [Deep Time Series Models: A Comprehensive Survey and Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13278/) (2024)
- [TEMPO: Prompt-based Generative Pre-trained Transformer for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.04948/) (2023)
- [PromptCast: A New Prompt-based Learning Paradigm for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.08964/) (2022)
- [TEST: Text Prototype Aligned Embedding to Activate LLM's Ability for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.08241/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [It's TIME: Towards the Next Generation of Time Series Forecasting Benchmarks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.12147/) (2026)
- [Estimating Time Series Foundation Model Transferability via In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.23695/) (2025)
- [PA-RNet: Perturbation-Aware Residual Network for Robust Multimodal Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.04750/) (2025)
- [ARIES: Relation Assessment and Model Recommendation for Deep Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.06060/) (2025)
- [Superposition Is Not Necessary: A Mechanistic Interpretability Analysis of Transformer Representations for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.05151/) (2026)
- [VFEM: Visual Feature Empowered Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Cross-Modal Fusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.03244/) (2025)
- [The Spectrum Is Not Enough: When Context Helps Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.13006/) (2026)
- [MixBench-TS: A Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Benchmark Where Channel Mixing Pays Off](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.32656/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Recent advances in long-term time series forecasting have introduced numerous complex supervised prediction models that consistently outperform previously published architectures. However, this rapid progression raises concerns regarding inconsistent benchmarking and reporting practices, which may undermine the reliability of these comparisons. In this study, we first perform a broad, thorough, and reproducible evaluation of the top-performing supervised models on the most popular benchmark and additional baselines representing the most active architecture families. This extensive evaluation assesses eight models on 14 datasets, encompassing ~5,000 trained networks for the hyperparameter (HP) searches. Then, through a comprehensive analysis, we find that slight changes to experimental setups or current evaluation metrics drastically shift the common belief that newly published results are advancing the state of the art. Our findings emphasize the need to shift focus away from pursuing ever-more complex models, towards enhancing benchmarking practices through rigorous and standardized evaluations that enable more substantiated claims, including reproducible HP setups and statistical testing. We offer recommendations for future research.