# An Empirical Analysis of Uncertainty in Large Language Model Evaluations

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.10709 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.10709/

## Key facts

- Cited by 20 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 67 of its 78 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Feb 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 67)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Llama 2: Open Foundation and Fine-Tuned Chat Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09288/) (2023)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11916/) (2022)
- [HellaSwag: Can a Machine Really Finish Your Sentence?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07830/) (2019)
- [Training a Helpful and Harmless Assistant with Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.05862/) (2022)
- [Mistral 7B](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06825/) (2023)
- [Self-Instruct: Aligning Language Models with Self-Generated Instructions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10560/) (2022)
- [A Survey of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.18223/) (2023)
- [G-Eval: NLG Evaluation using GPT-4 with Better Human Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16634/) (2023)
- [A Survey on Large Language Model based Autonomous Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.11432/) (2023)
- [Qwen2 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.10671/) (2024)
- [Gemma 2: Improving Open Language Models at a Practical Size](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.00118/) (2024)
- [A Survey on Evaluation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.03109/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models are not Fair Evaluators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.17926/) (2023)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Scheduled Sampling for Sequence Prediction with Recurrent Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.03099/) (2015)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [AlpacaFarm: A Simulation Framework for Methods that Learn from Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14387/) (2023)
- [Can Large Language Models Be an Alternative to Human Evaluations?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.01937/) (2023)
- [Prometheus: Inducing Fine-grained Evaluation Capability in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08491/) (2023)
- [Prometheus 2: An Open Source Language Model Specialized in Evaluating Other Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.01535/) (2024)
- [Detecting Pretraining Data from Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.16789/) (2023)
- [PandaLM: An Automatic Evaluation Benchmark for LLM Instruction Tuning Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05087/) (2023)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models at Evaluating Instruction Following](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07641/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [DeepScientist: Advancing Frontier-Pushing Scientific Findings Progressively](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.26603/) (2025)
- [RewardAnything: Generalizable Principle-Following Reward Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.03637/) (2025)
- [Analyzing Uncertainty of LLM-as-a-Judge: Interval Evaluations with Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.18658/) (2025)
- [AutoFigure: Generating and Refining Publication-Ready Scientific Illustrations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.03828/) (2026)
- [Diagnosing the Reliability of LLM-as-a-Judge via Item Response Theory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.00521/) (2026)
- [An overview of model uncertainty and variability in LLM-based sentiment analysis. Challenges, mitigation strategies and the role of explainability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.04462/) (2025)
- [Alignment and Safety in Large Language Models: Safety Mechanisms, Training Paradigms, and Emerging Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.19672/) (2025)
- [How Far Are AI Scientists from Changing the World?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.23276/) (2025)
- [SCOPE: Selective Conformal Optimized Pairwise LLM Judging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.13110/) (2026)
- [WebDevJudge: Evaluating (M)LLMs as Critiques for Web Development Quality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.18560/) (2025)
- [Right Is Not Enough: The Pitfalls of Outcome Supervision in Training LLMs for Math Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.06877/) (2025)
- [STREAM (ChemBio): A Standard for Transparently Reporting Evaluations in AI Model Reports](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.09853/) (2025)
- [Towards Agents That Know When They Don't Know: Uncertainty as a Control Signal for Structured Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.02401/) (2025)
- [Principled Context Engineering for RAG: Statistical Guarantees via Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.17908/) (2025)
- [Bias and Uncertainty in LLM-as-a-Judge Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.06939/) (2026)
- [NanoResearch: Co-Evolving Skills, Memory, and Policy for Personalized Research Automation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.10813/) (2026)
- [Judging with Confidence: Calibrating Autoraters to Preference Distributions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.00263/) (2025)
- [The Anatomy of Uncertainty in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.24967/) (2026)
- [Robust Conformal Consensus: Multi-Agent LLM-as-a-Judge Interval Evaluation with Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.06367/) (2026)
- [Characterizing Overconfident Failure in LLM-Based Code Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.11300/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

As LLM-as-a-Judge emerges as a new paradigm for assessing large language models (LLMs), concerns have been raised regarding the alignment, bias, and stability of LLM evaluators. While substantial work has focused on alignment and bias, little research has concentrated on the stability of LLM evaluators. In this paper, we conduct extensive experiments involving 9 widely used LLM evaluators across 2 different evaluation settings to investigate the uncertainty in model-based LLM evaluations. We pinpoint that LLM evaluators exhibit varying uncertainty based on model families and sizes. With careful comparative analyses, we find that employing special prompting strategies, whether during inference or post-training, can alleviate evaluation uncertainty to some extent. By utilizing uncertainty to enhance LLM's reliability and detection capability in Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) data, we further fine-tune an uncertainty-aware LLM evaluator named ConfiLM using a human-annotated fine-tuning set and assess ConfiLM's OOD evaluation ability on a manually designed test set sourced from the 2024 Olympics. Experimental results demonstrate that incorporating uncertainty as additional information during the fine-tuning phase can largely improve the model's evaluation performance in OOD scenarios. The code and data are released at: https://github.com/hasakiXie123/LLM-Evaluator-Uncertainty.