# Confidence Improves Self-Consistency in LLMs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.06233 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.06233/

## Key facts

- Cited by 113 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 39 of its 50 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Feb 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 39)

- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [Self-Refine: Iterative Refinement with Self-Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17651/) (2023)
- [Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12712/) (2023)
- [Gemma 2: Improving Open Language Models at a Practical Size](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.00118/) (2024)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [MMLU-Pro: A More Robust and Challenging Multi-Task Language Understanding Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01574/) (2024)
- [Challenging BIG-Bench Tasks and Whether Chain-of-Thought Can Solve Them](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.09261/) (2022)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Large Language Models Cannot Self-Correct Reasoning Yet](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01798/) (2023)
- [Graph of Thoughts: Solving Elaborate Problems with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.09687/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Discovering Latent Knowledge in Language Models Without Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.03827/) (2022)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.13734/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models are Better Reasoners with Self-Verification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09561/) (2022)
- [LLMs Know More Than They Show: On the Intrinsic Representation of LLM Hallucinations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.02707/) (2024)
- [Does Fine-Tuning LLMs on New Knowledge Encourage Hallucinations?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.05904/) (2024)
- [Fine-tuning Language Models for Factuality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08401/) (2023)
- [SelfCheck: Using LLMs to Zero-Shot Check Their Own Step-by-Step Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.00436/) (2023)
- [On the Self-Verification Limitations of Large Language Models on Reasoning and Planning Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.08115/) (2024)
- [Let's Sample Step by Step: Adaptive-Consistency for Efficient Reasoning and Coding with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.11860/) (2023)
- [Can Large Language Models Really Improve by Self-critiquing Their Own Plans?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08118/) (2023)
- [Escape Sky-high Cost: Early-stopping Self-Consistency for Multi-step Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.10480/) (2024)
- [Answering Questions by Meta-Reasoning over Multiple Chains of Thought](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.13007/) (2023)
- [Small Language Models Need Strong Verifiers to Self-Correct Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.17140/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 113)

- [Stop Overthinking: A Survey on Efficient Reasoning for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.16419/) (2025)
- [Towards Reasoning Era: A Survey of Long Chain-of-Thought for Reasoning Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09567/) (2025)
- [A Survey of Self-Evolving Agents: What, When, How, and Where to Evolve on the Path to Artificial Super Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.21046/) (2025)
- [Beyond Binary Rewards: Training LMs to Reason About Their Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.16806/) (2025)
- [Efficient Reasoning Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.10903/) (2025)
- [AgentRxiv: Towards Collaborative Autonomous Research](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.18102/) (2025)
- [LLM-as-a-Prophet: Understanding Predictive Intelligence with Prophet Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.17638/) (2025)
- [Debate Only When Necessary: Adaptive Multiagent Collaboration for Efficient LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.05047/) (2025)
- [Low-probability Tokens Sustain Exploration in Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Reward](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.03222/) (2025)
- [From Calibration to Collaboration: LLM Uncertainty Quantification Should Be More Human-Centered](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.07461/) (2025)
- [Trace Length is a Simple Uncertainty Signal in Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.10409/) (2025)
- [Mitigating LLM Hallucination via Behaviorally Calibrated Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.19920/) (2025)
- [SimuHome: A Temporal- and Environment-Aware Benchmark for Smart Home LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.24282/) (2025)
- [Do Repetitions Matter? Strengthening Reliability in LLM Evaluations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.24086/) (2025)
- [Calibrating Verbalized Confidence with Self-Generated Distractors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25532/) (2025)
- [Parallel-Probe: Towards Efficient Parallel Thinking via 2D Probing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.03845/) (2026)
- [Geometric Uncertainty for Detecting and Correcting Hallucinations in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.13813/) (2025)
- [Slim-SC: Thought Pruning for Efficient Scaling with Self-Consistency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.13990/) (2025)
- [Reliability-Aware Adaptive Self-Consistency for Efficient Sampling in LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.02970/) (2026)
- [Exploring the System 1 Thinking Capability of Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.10368/) (2025)
- [PiCSAR: Probabilistic Confidence Selection And Ranking for Reasoning Chains](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.21787/) (2025)
- [Harnessing Consistency for Robust Test-Time LLM Ensemble](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.13855/) (2025)
- [Understanding and Steering the Cognitive Behaviors of Reasoning Models at Test-Time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.24574/) (2025)
- [Multi-Agent Debate with Memory Masking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.20215/) (2026)
- [LLMs Improving LLMs: Agentic Discovery for Test-Time Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.08083/) (2026)
- [Optimal Self-Consistency for Efficient Reasoning with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.12309/) (2025)
- [Self-Training Large Language Models with Confident Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17454/) (2025)
- [Guided by Gut: Efficient Test-Time Scaling with Reinforced Intrinsic Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.20325/) (2025)
- [How Far Are We from Optimal Reasoning Efficiency?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.07104/) (2025)
- [RACER: Risk-Aware Calibrated Efficient Routing for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.06616/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Self-consistency decoding enhances LLMs' performance on reasoning tasks by sampling diverse reasoning paths and selecting the most frequent answer. However, it is computationally expensive, as sampling many of these (lengthy) paths is required to increase the chances that the correct answer emerges as the most frequent one. To address this, we introduce Confidence-Informed Self-Consistency (CISC). CISC performs a weighted majority vote based on confidence scores obtained directly from the model. By prioritizing high-confidence paths, it can identify the correct answer with a significantly smaller sample size. When tested on nine models and four datasets, CISC outperforms self-consistency in nearly all configurations, reducing the required number of reasoning paths by over 40% on average. In addition, we introduce the notion of within-question confidence evaluation, after showing that standard evaluation methods are poor predictors of success in distinguishing correct and incorrect answers to the same question. In fact, the most calibrated confidence method proved to be the least effective for CISC. Lastly, beyond these practical implications, our results and analyses show that LLMs can effectively judge the correctness of their own outputs, contributing to the ongoing debate on this topic.