# MXMap: A Multivariate Cross Mapping Framework for Causal Discovery in Dynamical Systems

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.03802 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.03802/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 51 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Feb 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [DAGs with NO TEARS: Continuous Optimization for Structure Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01422/) (2018)
- [Causal Discovery with Continuous Additive Noise Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1309.6779/) (2013)
- [Detecting causal associations in large nonlinear time series datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.07007/) (2017)
- [DYNOTEARS: Structure Learning from Time-Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.00498/) (2020)
- [Causal Inference in the Presence of Latent Variables and Selection Bias](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1302.4983/) (2013)
- [Causal-learn: Causal Discovery in Python](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.16405/) (2023)
- [Discovering Causal Relations and Equations from Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.13341/) (2023)
- [Causal structure learning from time series: Large regression coefficients may predict causal links better in practice than small p-values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.09573/) (2020)
- [Rank-Based Causal Discovery for Post-Nonlinear Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.12341/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) is a powerful method for detecting causality in coupled nonlinear dynamical systems, providing a model-free approach to capture dynamic causal interactions. Partial Cross Mapping (PCM) was introduced as an extension of CCM to address indirect causality in three-variable systems by comparing cross-mapping quality between direct cause-effect mapping and indirect mapping through an intermediate conditioning variable. However, PCM remains limited to univariate delay embeddings in its cross-mapping processes. In this work, we extend PCM to the multivariate setting, introducing multiPCM, which leverages multivariate embeddings to more effectively distinguish indirect causal relationships. We further propose a multivariate cross-mapping framework (MXMap) for causal discovery in dynamical systems. This two-phase framework combines (1) pairwise CCM tests to establish an initial causal graph and (2) multiPCM to refine the graph by pruning indirect causal connections. Through experiments on simulated data and the ERA5 Reanalysis weather dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of MXMap. Additionally, MXMap is compared against several baseline methods, showing advantages in accuracy and causal graph refinement.