# Conditional Prediction by Simulation for Automated Driving

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.03286 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.03286/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Imitation-learning end-to-end planners, one of 9 directions in End-to-end autonomous driving.
- Builds on 12 of its 17 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Feb 2025.

## Placed in

- End-to-end autonomous driving / [Imitation-learning end-to-end planners](https://mlsanity.com/driving/imitation-learning-end-to-end-planners/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [High-Dimensional Continuous Control Using Generalized Advantage Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02438/) (2015)
- [Learning Robust Rewards with Adversarial Inverse Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.11248/) (2017)
- [INTERACTION Dataset: An INTERnational, Adversarial and Cooperative moTION Dataset in Interactive Driving Scenarios with Semantic Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.03088/) (2019)
- [MotionLM: Multi-Agent Motion Forecasting as Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.16534/) (2023)
- [MTR++: Multi-Agent Motion Prediction with Symmetric Scene Modeling and Guided Intention Querying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.17770/) (2023)
- [Feedback in Imitation Learning: The Three Regimes of Covariate Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.02872/) (2021)
- [Identifying Driver Interactions via Conditional Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09959/) (2021)
- [Tree-structured Policy Planning with Learned Behavior Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.11902/) (2023)
- [SceneMotion: From Agent-Centric Embeddings to Scene-Wide Forecasts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.01537/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Modular automated driving systems commonly handle prediction and planning as sequential, separate tasks, thereby prohibiting cooperative maneuvers. To enable cooperative planning, this work introduces a prediction model that models the conditional dependencies between trajectories. For this, predictions are generated by a microscopic traffic simulation, with the individual traffic participants being controlled by a realistic behavior model trained via Adversarial Inverse Reinforcement Learning. By assuming various candidate trajectories for the automated vehicle, we generate predictions conditioned on each of them. Furthermore, our approach allows the candidate trajectories to adapt dynamically during the prediction rollout. Several example scenarios are available at https://conditionalpredictionbysimulation.github.io/.