# Bayesian Approximation-Based Trajectory Prediction and Tracking with 4D Radar

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.01357 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.01357/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 23 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 3 Feb 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 23 of 23)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Center-based 3D Object Detection and Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11275/) (2020)
- [A Review and Comparative Study on Probabilistic Object Detection in Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.10671/) (2020)
- [GNN3DMOT: Graph Neural Network for 3D Multi-Object Tracking with Multi-Feature Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.07327/) (2020)
- [K-Radar: 4D Radar Object Detection for Autonomous Driving in Various Weather Conditions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.08171/) (2022)
- [SimpleTrack: Understanding and Rethinking 3D Multi-object Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.09621/) (2021)
- [Stochastic Segmentation Networks: Modelling Spatially Correlated Aleatoric Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.06015/) (2020)
- [MUTR3D: A Multi-camera Tracking Framework via 3D-to-2D Queries](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.00613/) (2022)
- [Towards Safe Autonomous Driving: Capture Uncertainty in the Deep Neural Network For Lidar 3D Vehicle Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.05132/) (2018)
- [Monocular Quasi-Dense 3D Object Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.07351/) (2021)
- [TJ4DRadSet: A 4D Radar Dataset for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.13483/) (2022)
- [Probabilistic 3D Multi-Modal, Multi-Object Tracking for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.13755/) (2020)
- [Standing Between Past and Future: Spatio-Temporal Modeling for Multi-Camera 3D Multi-Object Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.03802/) (2023)
- [Score refinement for confidence-based 3D multi-object tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.04327/) (2021)
- [CC-3DT: Panoramic 3D Object Tracking via Cross-Camera Fusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.01247/) (2022)
- [Joint Multi-Object Detection and Tracking with Camera-LiDAR Fusion for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.04602/) (2021)
- [Enhanced K-Radar: Optimal Density Reduction to Improve Detection Performance and Accessibility of 4D Radar Tensor-based Object Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.06342/) (2023)
- [Deep Multi-view Depth Estimation with Predicted Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.09594/) (2020)
- [Capturing Object Detection Uncertainty in Multi-Layer Grid Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.11284/) (2019)
- [3DMODT: Attention-Guided Affinities for Joint Detection & Tracking in 3D Point Clouds](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.00746/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [IMM-based Multiple Object Tracking using a State Prediction Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.13307/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate 3D multi-object tracking (MOT) is vital for autonomous vehicles, yet LiDAR and camera-based methods degrade in adverse weather. Meanwhile, Radar-based solutions remain robust but often suffer from limited vertical resolution and simplistic motion models. Existing Kalman filter-based approaches also rely on fixed noise covariance, hampering adaptability when objects make sudden maneuvers. We propose Bayes-4DRTrack, a 4D Radar-based MOT framework that adopts a transformer-based motion prediction network to capture nonlinear motion dynamics and employs Bayesian approximation in both detection and prediction steps. Moreover, our two-stage data association leverages Doppler measurements to better distinguish closely spaced targets. Evaluated on the K-Radar dataset (including adverse weather scenarios), Bayes-4DRTrack demonstrates a 5.7% gain in Average Multi-Object Tracking Accuracy (AMOTA) over methods with traditional motion models and fixed noise covariance. These results showcase enhanced robustness and accuracy in demanding, real-world conditions.