# Using Causality for Enhanced Prediction of Web Traffic Time Series

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.00612 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.00612/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 22 of its 51 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Feb 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [Momentum Contrast for Unsupervised Visual Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.05722/) (2019)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10437/) (2019)
- [Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01728/) (2023)
- [TimeMixer: Decomposable Multiscale Mixing for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14616/) (2024)
- [TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20150/) (2024)
- [TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19072/) (2024)
- [Deep Time Series Models: A Comprehensive Survey and Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13278/) (2024)
- [Are Language Models Actually Useful for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16964/) (2024)
- [Pathformer: Multi-scale Transformers with Adaptive Pathways for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.05956/) (2024)
- [Disentangling Structured Components: Towards Adaptive, Interpretable and Scalable Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.13036/) (2023)
- [Paint4Poem: A Dataset for Artistic Visualization of Classical Chinese Poems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.11682/) (2021)
- [Anti-Overestimation Dialogue Policy Learning for Task-Completion Dialogue System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.11762/) (2022)
- [A Generic Method for Fine-grained Category Discovery in Natural Language Texts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.13103/) (2024)
- [TPMCF: Temporal QoS Prediction using Multi-Source Collaborative Features](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.18201/) (2023)
- [Fighting Against the Repetitive Training and Sample Dependency Problem in Few-shot Named Entity Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.05460/) (2024)
- [OptScaler: A Collaborative Framework for Robust Autoscaling in the Cloud](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12864/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Large Language Models Reasoning Abilities Under Non-Ideal Conditions After RL-Fine-Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.04848/) (2025)
- [Structured Information for Improving Spatial Relationships in Text-to-Image Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.15962/) (2025)
- [Understanding Network Behaviors through Natural Language Question-Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.21894/) (2025)
- [Automated Prompt Generation for Creative and Counterfactual Text-to-image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.21375/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Predicting web service traffic has significant social value, as it can be applied to various practical scenarios, including but not limited to dynamic resource scaling, load balancing, system anomaly detection, service-level agreement compliance, and fraud detection. Web service traffic is characterized by frequent and drastic fluctuations over time and are influenced by heterogeneous web user behaviors, making accurate prediction a challenging task. Previous research has extensively explored statistical approaches, and neural networks to mine features from preceding service traffic time series for prediction. However, these methods have largely overlooked the causal relationships between services. Drawing inspiration from causality in ecological systems, we empirically recognize the causal relationships between web services. To leverage these relationships for improved web service traffic prediction, we propose an effective neural network module, CCMPlus, designed to extract causal relationship features across services. This module can be seamlessly integrated with existing time series models to consistently enhance the performance of web service traffic predictions. We theoretically justify that the causal correlation matrix generated by the CCMPlus module captures causal relationships among services. Empirical results on real-world datasets from Microsoft Azure, Alibaba Group, and Ant Group confirm that our method surpasses state-of-the-art approaches in Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for predicting service traffic time series. These findings highlight the efficacy of leveraging causal relationships for improved predictions.