# Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.16946 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.16946/

## Key facts

- Cited by 46 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 28 Jan 2025.

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 46)

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- [Distributed and Decentralised Training: Technical Governance Challenges in a Shifting AI Landscape](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.07765/) (2025)
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- [Against racing to AGI: Cooperation, deterrence, and catastrophic risks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.21839/) (2025)
- [Reproducibility: The New Frontier in AI Governance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.11595/) (2025)
- [The Homogenization Problem in LLMs: Towards Meaningful Diversity in AI Safety](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.06116/) (2026)
- [Dimensional Characterization and Pathway Modeling for Catastrophic AI Risks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.06411/) (2025)
- [When Assisting One Disempowers Another](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.04177/) (2025)
- [Solipsistic Superintelligence is Unlikely to be Cooperative](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.03237/) (2026)
- [A dataset of rated conceptual arguments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.27499/) (2026)
- [Mitigating Societal Cognitive Overload in the Age of AI: Challenges and Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.19990/) (2025)
- [A Taxonomy of Omnicidal Futures Involving Artificial Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.09369/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper examines the systemic risks posed by incremental advancements in artificial intelligence, developing the concept of `gradual disempowerment', in contrast to the abrupt takeover scenarios commonly discussed in AI safety. We analyze how even incremental improvements in AI capabilities can undermine human influence over large-scale systems that society depends on, including the economy, culture, and nation-states. As AI increasingly replaces human labor and cognition in these domains, it can weaken both explicit human control mechanisms (like voting and consumer choice) and the implicit alignments with human interests that often arise from societal systems' reliance on human participation to function. Furthermore, to the extent that these systems incentivise outcomes that do not line up with human preferences, AIs may optimize for those outcomes more aggressively. These effects may be mutually reinforcing across different domains: economic power shapes cultural narratives and political decisions, while cultural shifts alter economic and political behavior. We argue that this dynamic could lead to an effectively irreversible loss of human influence over crucial societal systems, precipitating an existential catastrophe through the permanent disempowerment of humanity. This suggests the need for both technical research and governance approaches that specifically address the risk of incremental erosion of human influence across interconnected societal systems.