# Risk-Informed Diffusion Transformer for Long-Tail Trajectory Prediction in the Crash Scenario

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.16349 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.16349/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Diffusion and flow policies for robotics, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 22 of its 49 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 Jan 2025.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Diffusion and flow policies for robotics](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/diffusion-and-flow-policies-for-robotics/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Scalable Diffusion Models with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09748/) (2022)
- [nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.11027/) (2019)
- [Scalability in Perception for Autonomous Driving: Waymo Open Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.04838/) (2019)
- [Decoupling Representation and Classifier for Long-Tailed Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09217/) (2019)
- [Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories with Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.10892/) (2018)
- [Generating Sequences With Recurrent Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1308.0850/) (2013)
- [MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.05449/) (2019)
- [Deep Long-Tailed Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.04596/) (2021)
- [BBN: Bilateral-Branch Network with Cumulative Learning for Long-Tailed Visual Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02413/) (2019)
- [Gate-Variants of Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.05923/) (2017)
- [Guided Conditional Diffusion for Controllable Traffic Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.17366/) (2022)
- [Stochastic Trajectory Prediction via Motion Indeterminacy Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.13777/) (2022)
- [Conditional Generative Neural System for Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.01631/) (2019)
- [Goal-GAN: Multimodal Trajectory Prediction Based on Goal Position Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.01114/) (2020)
- [Sequence-to-Sequence Prediction of Vehicle Trajectory via LSTM Encoder-Decoder Architecture](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.06338/) (2018)
- [On Exposing the Challenging Long Tail in Future Prediction of Traffic Actors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.12474/) (2021)
- [Multimodal Deep Generative Models for Trajectory Prediction: A Conditional Variational Autoencoder Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.03880/) (2020)
- [WcDT: World-centric Diffusion Transformer for Traffic Scene Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.02082/) (2024)
- [FEND: A Future Enhanced Distribution-Aware Contrastive Learning Framework for Long-tail Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16574/) (2023)
- [TAE: A Semi-supervised Controllable Behavior-aware Trajectory Generator and Predictor](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.01261/) (2022)
- [A physics-informed GAN Framework based on Model-free Data-Driven Computational Mechanics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.20308/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Simulating the Unseen: Crash Prediction Must Learn from What Did Not Happen](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.21743/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Trajectory prediction methods have been widely applied in autonomous driving technologies. Although the overall performance accuracy of trajectory prediction is relatively high, the lack of trajectory data in critical scenarios in the training data leads to the long-tail phenomenon. Normally, the trajectories of the tail data are more critical and more difficult to predict and may include rare scenarios such as crashes. To solve this problem, we extracted the trajectory data from real-world crash scenarios, which contain more long-tail data. Meanwhile, based on the trajectory data in this scenario, we integrated graph-based risk information and diffusion with transformer and proposed the Risk-Informed Diffusion Transformer (RI-DiT) trajectory prediction method. Extensive experiments were conducted on trajectory data in the real-world crash scenario, and the results show that the algorithm we proposed has good performance. When predicting the data of the tail 10% (Top 10%), the minADE and minFDE indicators are 0.016/2.667 m. At the same time, we showed the trajectory conditions of different long-tail distributions. The distribution of trajectory data is closer to the tail, the less smooth the trajectory is. Through the trajectory data in real-world crash scenarios, Our work expands the methods to overcome the long-tail challenges in trajectory prediction. Our method, RI-DiT, integrates inverse time to collision (ITTC) and the feature of traffic flow, which can predict long-tail trajectories more accurately and improve the safety of autonomous driving systems.