# Unveiling the Power of Noise Priors: Enhancing Diffusion Models for Mobile Traffic Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.13794 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.13794/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Diffusion and flow policies for robotics, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 31 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Jan 2025.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Diffusion and flow policies for robotics](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/diffusion-and-flow-policies-for-robotics/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 31)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Improved Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09672/) (2021)
- [Stable Video Diffusion: Scaling Latent Video Diffusion Models to Large Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.15127/) (2023)
- [Video Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.03458/) (2022)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01728/) (2023)
- [CSDI: Conditional Score-based Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03502/) (2021)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [T-GCN: A Temporal Graph ConvolutionalNetwork for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.05320/) (2018)
- [Deep Spatio-Temporal Residual Networks for Citywide Crowd Flows Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.00081/) (2016)
- [Preserve Your Own Correlation: A Noise Prior for Video Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10474/) (2023)
- [A Survey on Video Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10647/) (2023)
- [FreeNoise: Tuning-Free Longer Video Diffusion via Noise Rescheduling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.15169/) (2023)
- [Spatial-Temporal Identity: A Simple yet Effective Baseline for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05233/) (2022)
- [Memory In Memory: A Predictive Neural Network for Learning Higher-Order Non-Stationarity from Spatiotemporal Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.07490/) (2018)
- [UniST: A Prompt-Empowered Universal Model for Urban Spatio-Temporal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.11838/) (2024)
- [Temporal Attention Unit: Towards Efficient Spatiotemporal Predictive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.12126/) (2022)
- [DiffSTG: Probabilistic Spatio-Temporal Graph Forecasting with Denoising Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.13629/) (2023)
- [Non-autoregressive Conditional Diffusion Models for Time Series Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05043/) (2023)
- [Spatio-temporal Diffusion Point Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.12403/) (2023)
- [TRIP: Temporal Residual Learning with Image Noise Prior for Image-to-Video Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.17005/) (2024)
- [Attentive Crowd Flow Machines](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.00101/) (2018)
- [PromptST: Prompt-Enhanced Spatio-Temporal Multi-Attribute Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.09500/) (2023)
- [Understanding Mobile Traffic Patterns of Large Scale Cellular Towers in Urban Environment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1510.04026/) (2015)
- [Towards Generative Modeling of Urban Flow through Knowledge-enhanced Denoising Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.10547/) (2023)
- [Spatio-Temporal Few-Shot Learning via Diffusive Neural Network Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.11922/) (2024)
- [Diffusion Transformers as Open-World Spatiotemporal Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.12164/) (2024)
- [Get Rid of Isolation: A Continuous Multi-task Spatio-Temporal Learning Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10524/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [UniMove: A Unified Model for Multi-city Human Mobility Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.06986/) (2025)
- [STM3: Mixture of Multiscale Mamba for Long-Term Spatio-Temporal Time-Series Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.12247/) (2025)
- [Collaborative Deterministic-Probabilistic Forecasting for Diverse Spatiotemporal Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.11013/) (2025)
- [Denoising Refinement Diffusion Models for Simultaneous Generation of Multi-scale Mobile Network Traffic](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.17532/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate prediction of mobile traffic, i.e., network traffic from cellular base stations, is crucial for optimizing network performance and supporting urban development. However, the non-stationary nature of mobile traffic, driven by human activity and environmental changes, leads to both regular patterns and abrupt variations. Diffusion models excel in capturing such complex temporal dynamics due to their ability to capture the inherent uncertainties. Most existing approaches prioritize designing novel denoising networks but often neglect the critical role of noise itself, potentially leading to sub-optimal performance. In this paper, we introduce a novel perspective by emphasizing the role of noise in the denoising process. Our analysis reveals that noise fundamentally shapes mobile traffic predictions, exhibiting distinct and consistent patterns. We propose NPDiff, a framework that decomposes noise into prior and residual components, with the prior derived from data dynamics, enhancing the model's ability to capture both regular and abrupt variations. NPDiff can seamlessly integrate with various diffusion-based prediction models, delivering predictions that are effective, efficient, and robust. Extensive experiments demonstrate that it achieves superior performance with an improvement over 30%, offering a new perspective on leveraging diffusion models in this domain. We provide code and data at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/NPDiff.