# Voter model can accurately predict individual opinions in online populations

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.13215 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.13215/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 22 Jan 2025.

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Uncovering Social Network Activity Using Joint User and Topic Interaction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.12842/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Models of opinion dynamics describe how opinions are shaped in various environments. While these models are able to replicate general opinion distributions observed in real-world scenarios, their capacity to align with data at the user level remains mostly untested. We evaluate the capacity of the multi-state voter model with zealots to capture individual opinions in a fine-grained Twitter dataset collected during the 2017 French Presidential elections. Our findings reveal a strong correspondence between individual opinion distributions in the equilibrium state of the model and ground-truth political leanings of the users. Additionally, we demonstrate that discord probabilities accurately identify pairs of like-minded users. These results emphasize the validity of the voter model in complex settings, and advocate for further empirical evaluations of opinion dynamics models at the user level.