# MoGERNN: An Inductive Traffic Predictor for Unobserved Locations

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.12281 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12281/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 37 of its 86 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 Jan 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Large Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02216/) (2017)
- [How Powerful are Graph Neural Networks?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.00826/) (2018)
- [Neural Message Passing for Quantum Chemistry](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.01212/) (2017)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [How Attentive are Graph Attention Networks?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.14491/) (2021)
- [Scheduled Sampling for Sequence Prediction with Recurrent Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.03099/) (2015)
- [Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11650/) (2020)
- [Principal Neighbourhood Aggregation for Graph Nets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.05718/) (2020)
- [GMAN: A Graph Multi-Attention Network for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.08415/) (2019)
- [T-GCN: A Temporal Graph ConvolutionalNetwork for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.05320/) (2018)
- [TimeMixer: Decomposable Multiscale Mixing for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14616/) (2024)
- [SCINet: Time Series Modeling and Forecasting with Sample Convolution and Interaction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09305/) (2021)
- [Dynamic Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Prediction: Benchmark and Solution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.14917/) (2021)
- [Spatial-Temporal Identity: A Simple yet Effective Baseline for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05233/) (2022)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks for Predictive Learning in Urban Computing: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.14483/) (2023)
- [Filling the G_ap_s: Multivariate Time Series Imputation by Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.00298/) (2021)
- [Inductive Graph Neural Networks for Spatiotemporal Kriging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.07527/) (2020)
- [DiffSTG: Probabilistic Spatio-Temporal Graph Forecasting with Denoising Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.13629/) (2023)
- [Towards Spatio-Temporal Aware Traffic Time Series Forecasting--Full Version](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15737/) (2022)
- [DPM: A Novel Training Method for Physics-Informed Neural Networks in Extrapolation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.02681/) (2020)
- [A Physics-Informed Deep Learning Paradigm for Traffic State and Fundamental Diagram Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.03142/) (2021)
- [Kriging Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.09463/) (2023)
- [Spatial Aggregation and Temporal Convolution Networks for Real-time Kriging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.12144/) (2021)
- [INCREASE: Inductive Graph Representation Learning for Spatio-Temporal Kriging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.02738/) (2023)
- [Macroscopic Traffic Flow Modeling with Physics Regularized Gaussian Process: A New Insight into Machine Learning Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.02374/) (2020)
- [Cross-city Few-Shot Traffic Forecasting via Traffic Pattern Bank](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.09727/) (2023)
- [KITS: Inductive Spatio-Temporal Kriging with Increment Training Strategy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.02565/) (2023)
- [TESTAM: A Time-Enhanced Spatio-Temporal Attention Model with Mixture of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.02600/) (2024)
- [Correlating sparse sensing for large-scale traffic speed estimation: A Laplacian-enhanced low-rank tensor kriging approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.11780/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Network-wide Freeway Traffic Estimation Using Sparse Sensor Data: A Dirichlet Graph Auto-Encoder Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.15845/) (2025)
- [Effective Dataset Distillation for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting with Bi-dimensional Compression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.10410/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Given a partially observed road network, how can we predict the traffic state of interested unobserved locations? Traffic prediction is crucial for advanced traffic management systems, with deep learning approaches showing exceptional performance. However, most existing approaches assume sensors are deployed at all locations of interest, which is impractical due to financial constraints. Furthermore, these methods are typically fragile to structural changes in sensing networks, which require costly retraining even for minor changes in sensor configuration. To address these challenges, we propose MoGERNN, an inductive spatio-temporal graph model with two key components: (i) a Mixture of Graph Experts (MoGE) with sparse gating mechanisms that dynamically route nodes to specialized graph aggregators, capturing heterogeneous spatial dependencies efficiently; (ii) a graph encoder-decoder architecture that leverages these embeddings to capture both spatial and temporal dependencies for comprehensive traffic state prediction. Experiments on two real-world datasets show MoGERNN consistently outperforms baseline methods for both observed and unobserved locations. MoGERNN can accurately predict congestion evolution even in areas without sensors, offering valuable information for traffic management. Moreover, MoGERNN is adaptable to the changes of sensor network, maintaining competitive performance even compared to its retrained counterpart. Tests performed with different numbers of available sensors confirm its consistent superiority, and ablation studies validate the effectiveness of its key modules. The code of this work is publicly available at: https://github.com/ZJU-TSELab/MoGERNN.