# Fine-grained Spatio-temporal Event Prediction with Self-adaptive Anchor Graph

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.08653 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.08653/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 23 of its 45 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Jan 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 23 of 23)

- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00121/) (2019)
- [Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11650/) (2020)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network for Multivariate Time-series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.07719/) (2021)
- [On Neural Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.02435/) (2022)
- [Transformer Hawkes Process](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.09291/) (2020)
- [GRU-ODE-Bayes: Continuous modeling of sporadically-observed time series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.12374/) (2019)
- [Spatial-Temporal Graph ODE Networks for Traffic Flow Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.12931/) (2021)
- [Dynamic Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Prediction: Benchmark and Solution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.14917/) (2021)
- [Neural Jump Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10403/) (2019)
- [Intensity-Free Learning of Temporal Point Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.12127/) (2019)
- [Neural Spatio-Temporal Point Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.04583/) (2020)
- [Transformer Embeddings of Irregularly Spaced Events and Their Participants](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.00044/) (2021)
- [Large-scale Multi-view Subspace Clustering in Linear Time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.09290/) (2019)
- [Spatio-temporal Diffusion Point Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.12403/) (2023)
- [Neural Point Process for Learning Spatiotemporal Event Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.06351/) (2021)
- [A Review of Self-Exciting Spatio-Temporal Point Processes and Their Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.02647/) (2017)
- [CDC: A Simple Framework for Complex Data Clustering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.03670/) (2024)
- [Beyond Redundancy: Information-aware Unsupervised Multiplex Graph Structure Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.17386/) (2024)
- [Non-Autoregressive Diffusion-based Temporal Point Processes for Continuous-Time Long-Term Event Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.01033/) (2023)
- [Intensity-free Convolutional Temporal Point Process: Incorporating Local and Global Event Contexts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.14072/) (2023)
- [Spacecraft Anomaly Detection with Attention Temporal Convolution Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.06879/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Dynamic Sheaf Diffusion Networks with Adaptive Local Structure for Heterogeneous Spatio-Temporal Graph Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.11275/) (2026)
- [GTIN: A Unified Framework for Joint Event and Time Prediction in Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.23556/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Event prediction tasks often handle spatio-temporal data distributed in a large spatial area. Different regions in the area exhibit different characteristics while having latent correlations. This spatial heterogeneity and correlations greatly affect the spatio-temporal distributions of event occurrences, which has not been addressed by state-of-the-art models. Learning spatial dependencies of events in a continuous space is challenging due to its fine granularity and a lack of prior knowledge. In this work, we propose a novel Graph Spatio-Temporal Point Process (GSTPP) model for fine-grained event prediction. It adopts an encoder-decoder architecture that jointly models the state dynamics of spatially localized regions using neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs). The state evolution is built on the foundation of a novel Self-Adaptive Anchor Graph (SAAG) that captures spatial dependencies. By adaptively localizing the anchor nodes in the space and jointly constructing the correlation edges between them, the SAAG enhances the model's ability of learning complex spatial event patterns. The proposed GSTPP model greatly improves the accuracy of fine-grained event prediction. Extensive experimental results show that our method greatly improves the prediction accuracy over existing spatio-temporal event prediction approaches.