# Explainable Time Series Prediction of Tyre Energy in Formula One Race Strategy

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.04067 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.04067/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 24 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 Jan 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [Optuna: A Next-generation Hyperparameter Optimization Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.10902/) (2019)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Towards Faithfully Interpretable NLP Systems: How should we define and evaluate faithfulness?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.03685/) (2020)
- [Explainable Machine Learning in Deployment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.06342/) (2019)
- [Formalizing Trust in Artificial Intelligence: Prerequisites, Causes and Goals of Human Trust in AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.07487/) (2020)
- [TSMixer: Lightweight MLP-Mixer Model for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.09364/) (2023)
- [Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) on TimeSeries Data: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00950/) (2021)
- [Learning Internal Representations (COLT 1995)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.05781/) (2019)
- [Feature Importance Explanations for Temporal Black-Box Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11934/) (2021)
- [Macroeconomic forecasting with LSTM and mixed frequency time series data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.13777/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Formula One (F1) race strategy takes place in a high-pressure and fast-paced environment where split-second decisions can drastically affect race results. Two of the core decisions of race strategy are when to make pit stops (i.e. replace the cars' tyres) and which tyre compounds (hard, medium or soft, in normal conditions) to select. The optimal pit stop decisions can be determined by estimating the tyre degradation of these compounds, which in turn can be computed from the energy applied to each tyre, i.e. the tyre energy. In this work, we trained deep learning models, using the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 team's historic race data consisting of telemetry, to forecast tyre energies during races. Additionally, we fitted XGBoost, a decision tree-based machine learning algorithm, to the same dataset and compared the results, with both giving impressive performance. Furthermore, we incorporated two different explainable AI methods, namely feature importance and counterfactual explanations, to gain insights into the reasoning behind the forecasts. Our contributions thus result in an explainable, automated method which could assist F1 teams in optimising their race strategy.