# MERCURY: A fast and versatile multi-resolution based global emulator of compound climate hazards

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.04018 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.04018/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 2 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Dec 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [GenPhys: From Physical Processes to Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.02637/) (2023)
- [DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Temperature and Precipitation in Earth System Models with 3D Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.11601/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Score-based generative emulation of impact-relevant Earth system model outputs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.04358/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

High-impact climate damages are often driven by compounding climate conditions. For example, elevated heat stress conditions can arise from a combination of high humidity and temperature. To explore future changes in compounding hazards under a range of climate scenarios and with large ensembles, climate emulators can provide light-weight, data-driven complements to Earth System Models. Yet, only a few existing emulators can jointly emulate multiple climate variables. In this study, we present the Multi-resolution EmulatoR for CompoUnd climate Risk analYsis: MERCURY. MERCURY extends multi-resolution analysis to a spatio-temporal framework for versatile emulation of multiple variables. MERCURY leverages data-driven, image compression techniques to generate emulations in a memory-efficient manner. MERCURY consists of a regional component that represents the monthly, regional response of a given variable to yearly Global Mean Temperature (GMT) using a probabilistic regression based additive model, resolving regional cross-correlations. It then adapts a reverse lifting-scheme operator to jointly spatially disaggregate regional, monthly values to grid-cell level. We demonstrate MERCURY's capabilities on representing the humid-heat metric, Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, as derived from temperature and relative humidity emulations. The emulated WBGT spatial correlations correspond well to those of ESMs and the 95% and 97.5% quantiles of WBGT distributions are well captured, with an average of 5% deviation. MERCURY's setup allows for region-specific emulations from which one can efficiently "zoom" into the grid-cell level across multiple variables by means of the reverse lifting-scheme operator. This circumvents the traditional problem of having to emulate complete, global-fields of climate data and resulting storage requirements.