# Evaluating Time Series Foundation Models on Noisy Periodic Time Series

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.00889 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.00889/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 15 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Jan 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Exploring the Limits of Transfer Learning with a Unified Text-to-Text Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10683/) (2019)
- [Llama 2: Open Foundation and Fine-Tuned Chat Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09288/) (2023)
- [On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07258/) (2021)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02592/) (2024)
- [Foundation Models for Time Series Analysis: A Tutorial and Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14735/) (2024)
- [A Survey of Deep Learning and Foundation Models for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.13912/) (2024)
- [Empowering Time Series Analysis with Foundation Models: A Comprehensive Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.02358/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

While recent advancements in foundation models have significantly impacted machine learning, rigorous tests on the performance of time series foundation models (TSFMs) remain largely underexplored. This paper presents an empirical study evaluating the zero-shot, long-horizon forecasting abilities of several leading TSFMs over two synthetic datasets constituting noisy periodic time series. We assess model efficacy across different noise levels, underlying frequencies, and sampling rates. As benchmarks for comparison, we choose two statistical techniques: a Fourier transform (FFT)-based approach and a linear autoregressive (AR) model. Our findings demonstrate that while for time series with bounded periods and higher sampling rates, TSFMs can match or outperform the statistical approaches, their forecasting abilities deteriorate with longer periods, higher noise levels, lower sampling rates and more complex shapes of the time series.