# Ister: Linear Transformer for Efficient Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.18798 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.18798/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 24 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Dec 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Reformer: The Efficient Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.04451/) (2020)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Transformers in Time Series: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07125/) (2022)
- [Non-stationary Transformers: Exploring the Stationarity in Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14415/) (2022)
- [SCINet: Time Series Modeling and Forecasting with Sample Convolution and Interaction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09305/) (2021)
- [TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19072/) (2024)
- [Is Mamba Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.11144/) (2024)
- [MSGNet: Learning Multi-Scale Inter-Series Correlations for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.00423/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [GNA: Granular Neighbor Assembly for Retrieval-Augmented Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.36281/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Transformer-based models have achieved remarkable success in multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) by capturing long-range dependencies. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by the quadratic computational complexity of self-attention, which limits scalability on high-dimensional sequences. To address this challenge, we propose the Inverted Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Transformer (Ister), a novel architecture that enhances both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. Central to Ister is Dot-attention, a linear-complexity attention mechanism that replaces conventional multi-head self-attention with element-wise dot-product operations to model inter-series dependencies. Furthermore, we introduce an inverted seasonal-trend decomposition strategy that isolates periodic components, enabling the model to focus learning on periodic patterns, thereby improving the performance of channel alignment. Extensive experiments across several real-world benchmarks demonstrate that Ister consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance. Code is available at https://github.com/macovaseas/Ister.