# A Survey of Calibration Process for Black-Box LLMs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.12767 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.12767/

## Key facts

- Cited by 8 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 81 of its 128 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Dec 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 81)

- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Sentence-BERT: Sentence Embeddings using Siamese BERT-Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.10084/) (2019)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [BERTScore: Evaluating Text Generation with BERT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.09675/) (2019)
- [Rethinking the Inception Architecture for Computer Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.00567/) (2015)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.09600/) (2018)
- [Self-Refine: Iterative Refinement with Self-Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17651/) (2023)
- [TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.07958/) (2021)
- [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08909/) (2020)
- [CommonsenseQA: A Question Answering Challenge Targeting Commonsense Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.00937/) (2018)
- [Calibrate Before Use: Improving Few-Shot Performance of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09690/) (2021)
- [What Disease does this Patient Have? A Large-scale Open Domain Question Answering Dataset from Medical Exams](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.13081/) (2020)
- [FActScore: Fine-grained Atomic Evaluation of Factual Precision in Long Form Text Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14251/) (2023)
- [DeBERTaV3: Improving DeBERTa using ELECTRA-Style Pre-Training with Gradient-Disentangled Embedding Sharing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.09543/) (2021)
- [ChatGLM: A Family of Large Language Models from GLM-130B to GLM-4 All Tools](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.12793/) (2024)
- [Measuring and Narrowing the Compositionality Gap in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03350/) (2022)
- [Domain-Specific Language Model Pretraining for Biomedical Natural Language Processing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.15779/) (2020)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [A Survey Of Methods For Explaining Black Box Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.01933/) (2018)
- [Are NLP Models really able to Solve Simple Math Word Problems?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.07191/) (2021)
- [Abstractive Text Summarization Using Sequence-to-Sequence RNNs and Beyond](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.06023/) (2016)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Maximizing Confidence Alone Improves Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.22660/) (2025)
- [Reasoning Models Better Express Their Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.14489/) (2025)
- [Anthropomimetic Uncertainty: What Verbalized Uncertainty in Language Models is Missing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.10587/) (2025)
- [Beyond Accuracy: The Role of Calibration in Self-Improving Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.02902/) (2025)
- [Training LLM Agents to Empower Humans](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.13709/) (2025)
- [A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.19868/) (2026)
- [The Dunning-Kruger Effect in Large Language Models: An Empirical Study of Confidence Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.09985/) (2026)
- [Can You Trust the Confidence? ConfBench for Vision-Language Models on Document Extraction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.01792/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable performance in semantic understanding and generation, yet accurately assessing their output reliability remains a significant challenge. While numerous studies have explored calibration techniques, they primarily focus on White-Box LLMs with accessible parameters. Black-Box LLMs, despite their superior performance, pose heightened requirements for calibration techniques due to their API-only interaction constraints. Although recent researches have achieved breakthroughs in black-box LLMs calibration, a systematic survey of these methodologies is still lacking. To bridge this gap, we presents the first comprehensive survey on calibration techniques for black-box LLMs. We first define the Calibration Process of LLMs as comprising two interrelated key steps: Confidence Estimation and Calibration. Second, we conduct a systematic review of applicable methods within black-box settings, and provide insights on the unique challenges and connections in implementing these key steps. Furthermore, we explore typical applications of Calibration Process in black-box LLMs and outline promising future research directions, providing new perspectives for enhancing reliability and human-machine alignment. This is our GitHub link: https://github.com/LiangruXie/Calibration-Process-in-Black-Box-LLMs