# Can You Trust LLM Judgments? Reliability of LLM-as-a-Judge

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.12509 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.12509/

## Key facts

- Cited by 56 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 17 Dec 2024.

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 56)

- [Reliability without Validity: A Systematic, Large-Scale Evaluation of LLM-as-a-Judge Models Across Agreement, Consistency, and Bias](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.19544/) (2026)
- [Analyzing Uncertainty of LLM-as-a-Judge: Interval Evaluations with Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.18658/) (2025)
- [An Empirical Study of LLM-as-a-Judge: How Design Choices Impact Evaluation Reliability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.13639/) (2025)
- [Diagnosing the Reliability of LLM-as-a-Judge via Item Response Theory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.00521/) (2026)
- [FIRE-Bench: Evaluating AI Agents on the Rediscovery of Scientific Insights](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.02905/) (2026)
- [Do not Abstain! Identify and Solve the Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.00780/) (2025)
- [RecGPT Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.22879/) (2025)
- [Benchmarks Saturate When The Model Gets Smarter Than The Judge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.19532/) (2026)
- [SAC-Opt: Semantic Anchors for Iterative Correction in Optimization Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.05115/) (2025)
- [ChartEditBench: Evaluating Grounded Multi-Turn Chart Editing in Multimodal Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.15758/) (2026)
- [Efficient Inference for Noisy LLM-as-a-Judge Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.05420/) (2026)
- [LOGIGEN: Logic-Driven Generation of Verifiable Agentic Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.00540/) (2026)
- [Reasoning LLMs are Wandering Solution Explorers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.20296/) (2025)
- [ContextEcho: A Benchmark for Persona Drift in Long Agentic-Coding Sessions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.24279/) (2026)
- [Beyond Words and Pixels: A Benchmark for Implicit World Knowledge Reasoning in Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.18271/) (2025)
- [MTMCS-Bench: Evaluating Contextual Safety of Multimodal Large Language Models in Multi-Turn Dialogues](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.06757/) (2026)
- [CyclicJudge: Mitigating Judge Bias Efficiently in LLM-based Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.01865/) (2026)
- [Ontology-Constrained Neural Reasoning in Enterprise Agentic Systems: A Neurosymbolic Architecture for Domain-Grounded AI Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.00555/) (2026)
- [Label Effects: Shared Heuristic Reliance in Trust Assessment by Humans and LLM-as-a-Judge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.05593/) (2026)
- [ComplexConstraints and Beyond: Expert Rubrics for RLVR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.09118/) (2026)
- [RephQA: Evaluating Readability of Large Language Models in Public Health Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.16360/) (2025)
- [Safe for Whom? Rethinking How We Evaluate the Safety of LLMs for Real Users](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.10687/) (2025)
- [Escaping the Self-Confirmation Trap: An Execute-Distill-Verify Paradigm for Agentic Experience Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.24428/) (2026)
- [Judge, Retrieve, or Abstain: Uncertainty-Guarded LLM Judging with Provable Risk Guarantees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.17994/) (2026)
- [Validating the Effectiveness of a Large Language Model-based Approach for Identifying Children's Development across Various Free Play Settings in Kindergarten](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.03369/) (2025)
- [IntelliProof: An Argumentation Network-based Conversational Helper for Organized Reflection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.04528/) (2025)
- [Trustworthy Agent Network: Trust in Agent Networks Must Be Baked In, Not Bolted On](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.19035/) (2026)
- [A Multi-Agent LLM Framework for Rating the Quality of Surgical Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.25440/) (2026)
- [VIABLE: A Visually Impaired Assistance Benchmark for VLM-as-a-Judge Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.31351/) (2026)
- [Are We Evaluating Knowledge or Phrasing? Mitigating MCQA Sensitivity with ParaEval](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.10657/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become increasingly powerful and ubiquitous, but their stochastic nature poses challenges to the reliability of their outputs. While deterministic settings can improve consistency, they do not guarantee reliability, as a single sample from the model's probability distribution can still be misleading. Building upon the concept of LLM-as-a-judge, we introduce a novel framework for rigorously evaluating the reliability of LLM judgments, leveraging McDonald's omega. We evaluate the reliability of LLMs when judging the outputs of other LLMs on standard single-turn and multi-turn benchmarks, simultaneously investigating the impact of temperature on reliability. By analyzing these results, we demonstrate the limitations of fixed randomness and the importance of considering multiple samples, which we show has significant implications for downstream applications. Our findings highlight the need for a nuanced understanding of LLM reliability and the potential risks associated with over-reliance on single-shot evaluations. This work provides a crucial step towards building more trustworthy and reliable LLM-based systems and applications.