# An In-Depth Examination of Risk Assessment in Multi-Class Classification Algorithms

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.04166 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.04166/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 36 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Dec 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.1556/) (2014)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [Conformalized Quantile Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.03222/) (2019)
- [Measuring Calibration in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.01685/) (2019)
- [Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coverage](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.02544/) (2020)
- [Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.14193/) (2020)
- [Image-to-Image Regression with Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification and Applications in Imaging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05265/) (2022)
- [Improving Expert Predictions with Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12006/) (2022)
- [Semantic uncertainty intervals for disentangled latent spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.10074/) (2022)
- [JAWS: Auditing Predictive Uncertainty Under Covariate Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.10716/) (2022)
- [Distribution-free risk assessment of regression-based machine learning algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03545/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Advanced classification algorithms are being increasingly used in safety-critical applications like health-care, engineering, etc. In such applications, miss-classifications made by ML algorithms can result in substantial financial or health-related losses. To better anticipate and prepare for such losses, the algorithm user seeks an estimate for the probability that the algorithm miss-classifies a sample. We refer to this task as the risk-assessment. For a variety of models and datasets, we numerically analyze the performance of different methods in solving the risk-assessment problem. We consider two solution strategies: a) calibration techniques that calibrate the output probabilities of classification models to provide accurate probability outputs; and b) a novel approach based upon the prediction interval generation technique of conformal prediction. Our conformal prediction based approach is model and data-distribution agnostic, simple to implement, and provides reasonable results for a variety of use-cases. We compare the different methods on a broad variety of models and datasets.