# DuoCast: Duo-Probabilistic Diffusion for Precipitation Nowcasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.01091 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.01091/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Dec 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11214/) (2022)
- [Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Generative Models of Radar](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00954/) (2021)
- [Disentangling Physical Dynamics from Unknown Factors for Unsupervised Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.01460/) (2020)
- [SimVP: Simpler yet Better Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.05099/) (2022)
- [Deep Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting: A Benchmark and A New Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03458/) (2017)
- [Earthformer: Exploring Space-Time Transformers for Earth System Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05833/) (2022)
- [DiffCast: A Unified Framework via Residual Diffusion for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06734/) (2023)
- [Latent diffusion models for generative precipitation nowcasting with accurate uncertainty quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.12891/) (2023)
- [CasCast: Skillful High-resolution Precipitation Nowcasting via Cascaded Modelling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.04290/) (2024)
- [ADD: Frequency Attention and Multi-View based Knowledge Distillation to Detect Low-Quality Compressed Deepfake Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.03553/) (2021)
- [FreqBlender: Enhancing DeepFake Detection by Blending Frequency Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.13872/) (2024)
- [Autoregressive Omni-Aware Outpainting for Open-Vocabulary 360-Degree Image Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.03467/) (2023)
- [Frequency Masking for Universal Deepfake Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06506/) (2024)
- [Fourier Amplitude and Correlation Loss: Beyond Using L2 Loss for Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.23159/) (2024)
- [Robust Audio Anti-Spoofing with Fusion-Reconstruction Learning on Multi-Order Spectrograms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.09302/) (2023)
- [Radio Frequency Signal based Human Silhouette Segmentation: A Sequential Diffusion Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.19244/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [McCast: Memory-Guided Latent Drift Correction for Long-Horizon Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.13197/) (2026)
- [PhenoYieldNet: Learning Crop-Aware Phenological Responses for Multi-Crop Yield Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.23478/) (2026)
- [FreCast: Refining Radar Echo Intensity via Phase-Preserving Amplitude Residual Diffusion for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.08436/) (2026)
- [NowcastDiT: Diffusion Transformers are Effective Precipitation Nowcasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.37038/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate short-term precipitation forecasting is critical for weather-sensitive decision-making in agriculture, transportation, and disaster response. Existing deep learning approaches often struggle to balance global structural consistency with local detail preservation, especially under complex meteorological conditions. We propose DuoCast, a dual-diffusion framework that decomposes precipitation forecasting into low- and high-frequency components modeled in orthogonal latent subspaces. We theoretically prove that this frequency decomposition reduces prediction error compared to conventional single branch U-Net diffusion models. In DuoCast, the low-frequency model captures large-scale trends via convolutional encoders conditioned on weather front dynamics, while the high-frequency model refines fine-scale variability using a self-attention-based architecture. Experiments on four benchmark radar datasets show that DuoCast consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving superior accuracy in both spatial detail and temporal evolution.