# SAUP: Situation Awareness Uncertainty Propagation on LLM Agent

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.01033 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.01033/

## Key facts

- Cited by 14 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in General LLM agent frameworks and benchmarks, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 24 of its 40 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Dec 2024.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [General LLM agent frameworks and benchmarks](https://mlsanity.com/agents/general-llm-agent-frameworks-and-benchmarks/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [RoBERTa: A Robustly Optimized BERT Pretraining Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.11692/) (2019)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [Reflexion: Language Agents with Verbal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11366/) (2023)
- [HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.09600/) (2018)
- [A Survey of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.18223/) (2023)
- [AutoGen: Enabling Next-Gen LLM Applications via Multi-Agent Conversation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.08155/) (2023)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [WebGPT: Browser-assisted question-answering with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.09332/) (2021)
- [Know What You Don't Know: Unanswerable Questions for SQuAD](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.03822/) (2018)
- [The Rise and Potential of Large Language Model Based Agents: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.07864/) (2023)
- [CodeT5: Identifier-aware Unified Pre-trained Encoder-Decoder Models for Code Understanding and Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.00859/) (2021)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.06196/) (2024)
- [Do Large Language Models Know What They Don't Know?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18153/) (2023)
- [On Hallucination and Predictive Uncertainty in Conditional Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.15025/) (2021)
- [Making Language Models Better Tool Learners with Execution Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.13068/) (2023)
- [Self-Reflection in LLM Agents: Effects on Problem-Solving Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.06682/) (2024)
- [Towards Uncertainty-Aware Language Agent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.14016/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty Estimation in Autoregressive Structured Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.07650/) (2020)
- [Rainproof: An Umbrella To Shield Text Generators From Out-Of-Distribution Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09171/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models: Taxonomy, Open Research Challenges, and Future Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.05563/) (2024)
- [UProp: Investigating the Uncertainty Propagation of LLMs in Multi-Step Agentic Decision-Making](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.17419/) (2025)
- [Towards Agents That Know When They Don't Know: Uncertainty as a Control Signal for Structured Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.02401/) (2025)
- [SELAUR: Self Evolving LLM Agent via Uncertainty-aware Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.21158/) (2026)
- [Agentic Knowledgeable Self-awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.03553/) (2025)
- [Every Response Counts: Quantifying Uncertainty of LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems through Tensor Decomposition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.08708/) (2026)
- [BrowseConf: Confidence-Guided Test-Time Scaling for Web Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.23458/) (2025)
- [From Passive Metric to Active Signal: The Evolving Role of Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.15690/) (2026)
- [Helicase: Uncertainty-Guided Supply Chain Knowledge Graph Construction with Autonomous Multi-Agent LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.26835/) (2026)
- [Confidence Laundering in Agent Systems: Why Uncertainty Needs a Latent Carrier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.20662/) (2026)
- [How to Speculate about Uncertainty in Agentic Coding? A Draft-Model Gate Method](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.05274/) (2026)
- [Proper Scoring Rules for Agentic Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.24756/) (2026)
- [Semantic Uncertainty-Guided Orchestration in Hierarchical Multi-Agent Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.14707/) (2026)
- [Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents: A Taxonomy, an Evaluation Protocol, and an Empirical Study](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.07395/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models (LLMs) integrated into multistep agent systems enable complex decision-making processes across various applications. However, their outputs often lack reliability, making uncertainty estimation crucial. Existing uncertainty estimation methods primarily focus on final-step outputs, which fail to account for cumulative uncertainty over the multistep decision-making process and the dynamic interactions between agents and their environments. To address these limitations, we propose SAUP (Situation Awareness Uncertainty Propagation), a novel framework that propagates uncertainty through each step of an LLM-based agent's reasoning process. SAUP incorporates situational awareness by assigning situational weights to each step's uncertainty during the propagation. Our method, compatible with various one-step uncertainty estimation techniques, provides a comprehensive and accurate uncertainty measure. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that SAUP significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods, achieving up to 20% improvement in AUROC.