# Beyond Monte Carlo: Harnessing Diffusion Models to Simulate Financial Market Dynamics

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.00036 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.00036/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 8 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 Nov 2024.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Generative Modeling by Estimating Gradients of the Data Distribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.05600/) (2019)
- [Diffusion Models: A Comprehensive Survey of Methods and Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.00796/) (2022)
- [Improved Techniques for Training Score-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.09011/) (2020)
- [Gotta Go Fast When Generating Data with Score-Based Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.14080/) (2021)
- [Quant GANs: Deep Generation of Financial Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.06673/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Fiaingen: A financial time series generative method matching real-world data quality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.01169/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We propose a highly efficient and accurate methodology for generating synthetic financial market data using a diffusion model approach. The synthetic data produced by our methodology align closely with observed market data in several key aspects: (i) they pass the two-sample Cramer - von Mises test for portfolios of assets, and (ii) Q - Q plots demonstrate consistency across quantiles, including in the tails, between observed and generated market data. Moreover, the covariance matrices derived from a large set of synthetic market data exhibit significantly lower condition numbers compared to the estimated covariance matrices of the observed data. This property makes them suitable for use as regularized versions of the latter. For model training, we develop an efficient and fast algorithm based on numerical integration rather than Monte Carlo simulations. The methodology is tested on a large set of equity data.