# Scaling Laws for Black box Adversarial Attacks

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.16782 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.16782/

## Key facts

- Cited by 8 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 75 of its 98 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Nov 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 75)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.1556/) (2014)
- [Swin Transformer: Hierarchical Vision Transformer using Shifted Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14030/) (2021)
- [Explaining and Harnessing Adversarial Examples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6572/) (2014)
- [Densely Connected Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.06993/) (2016)
- [EfficientNet: Rethinking Model Scaling for Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11946/) (2019)
- [Towards Deep Learning Models Resistant to Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.06083/) (2017)
- [Rethinking the Inception Architecture for Computer Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.00567/) (2015)
- [Intriguing properties of neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6199/) (2013)
- [Training data-efficient image transformers & distillation through attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.12877/) (2020)
- [Going Deeper with Convolutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.4842/) (2014)
- [MobileNets: Efficient Convolutional Neural Networks for Mobile Vision Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04861/) (2017)
- [A ConvNet for the 2020s](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.03545/) (2022)
- [Universal and Transferable Adversarial Attacks on Aligned Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15043/) (2023)
- [Wide Residual Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.07146/) (2016)
- [Towards Evaluating the Robustness of Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.04644/) (2016)
- [SegFormer: Simple and Efficient Design for Semantic Segmentation with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.15203/) (2021)
- [Aggregated Residual Transformations for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.05431/) (2016)
- [BEiT: BERT Pre-Training of Image Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.08254/) (2021)
- [Phi-3 Technical Report: A Highly Capable Language Model Locally on Your Phone](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.14219/) (2024)
- [Model soups: averaging weights of multiple fine-tuned models improves accuracy without increasing inference time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.05482/) (2022)
- [Obfuscated Gradients Give a False Sense of Security: Circumventing Defenses to Adversarial Examples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.00420/) (2018)
- [ShuffleNet: An Extremely Efficient Convolutional Neural Network for Mobile Devices](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.01083/) (2017)
- [Reproducible scaling laws for contrastive language-image learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.07143/) (2022)
- [SqueezeNet: AlexNet-level accuracy with 50x fewer parameters and <0.5MB model size](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.07360/) (2016)
- [CvT: Introducing Convolutions to Vision Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.15808/) (2021)
- [MnasNet: Platform-Aware Neural Architecture Search for Mobile](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.11626/) (2018)
- [Adversarial Machine Learning at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.01236/) (2016)
- [Ensemble Adversarial Training: Attacks and Defenses](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07204/) (2017)

## Built on by (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [X-Transfer Attacks: Towards Super Transferable Adversarial Attacks on CLIP](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.05528/) (2025)
- [Towards the Worst-case Robustness of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19040/) (2025)
- [Predictable Scale: Part II, Farseer: A Refined Scaling Law in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.10972/) (2025)
- [Adversarial Confusion Attack: Disrupting Multimodal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.20494/) (2025)
- [Use as Many Surrogates as You Want: Selective Ensemble Attack to Unleash Transferability without Sacrificing Resource Efficiency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.12644/) (2025)
- [Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law with Neural Ansatz](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.10300/) (2026)
- [Systematic Scaling Analysis of Jailbreak Attacks in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.11149/) (2026)
- [RaPA: Enhancing Transferable Targeted Attacks via Random Parameter Pruning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.18594/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Adversarial examples exhibit cross-model transferability, enabling threatening black-box attacks on commercial models. Model ensembling, which attacks multiple surrogate models, is a known strategy to improve this transferability. However, prior studies typically use small, fixed ensembles, which leaves open an intriguing question of whether scaling the number of surrogate models can further improve black-box attacks. In this work, we conduct the first large-scale empirical study of this question. We show that by resolving gradient conflict with advanced optimizers, we discover a robust and universal log-linear scaling law through both theoretical analysis and empirical evaluations: the Attack Success Rate (ASR) scales linearly with the logarithm of the ensemble size T. We rigorously verify this law across standard classifiers, SOTA defenses, and MLLMs, and find that scaling distills robust, semantic features of the target class. Consequently, we apply this fundamental insight to benchmark SOTA MLLMs. This reveals both the attack's devastating power and a clear robustness hierarchy: we achieve 80%+ transfer attack success rate on proprietary models like GPT-4o, while also highlighting the exceptional resilience of Claude-3.5-Sonnet. Our findings urge a shift in focus for robustness evaluation: from designing intricate algorithms on small ensembles to understanding the principled and powerful threat of scaling.