# A Review of Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Probabilistic Image Segmentation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.16370 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.16370/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 194 of its 289 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Nov 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 194)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Microsoft COCO: Common Objects in Context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1405.0312/) (2014)
- [Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.1556/) (2014)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Emerging Properties in Self-Supervised Vision Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.14294/) (2021)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [Rethinking the Inception Architecture for Computer Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.00567/) (2015)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Fully Convolutional Networks for Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1411.4038/) (2014)
- [Neural Discrete Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00937/) (2017)
- [Image-to-Image Translation with Conditional Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.07004/) (2016)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [The Cityscapes Dataset for Semantic Urban Scene Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.01685/) (2016)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Improved Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09672/) (2021)
- [A ConvNet for the 2020s](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.03545/) (2022)
- [SegFormer: Simple and Efficient Design for Semantic Segmentation with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.15203/) (2021)
- [Categorical Reparameterization with Gumbel-Softmax](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.01144/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Masked-attention Mask Transformer for Universal Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.01527/) (2021)
- [Sinkhorn Distances: Lightspeed Computation of Optimal Transportation Distances](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1306.0895/) (2013)
- [Variational Inference with Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05770/) (2015)
- [Rethinking Atrous Convolution for Semantic Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.05587/) (2017)
- [Searching for MobileNetV3](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.02244/) (2019)
- [SegNet: A Deep Convolutional Encoder-Decoder Architecture for Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.00561/) (2015)
- [The Concrete Distribution: A Continuous Relaxation of Discrete Random Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.00712/) (2016)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [SGMA: Semantic-Guided Modality-Aware Segmentation for Remote Sensing with Incomplete Multimodal Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.02505/) (2026)
- [Rethinking Uncertainty Quantification and Entanglement in Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.18792/) (2026)
- [Better than Average: Spatially-Aware Aggregation of Segmentation Uncertainty Improves Downstream Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.29941/) (2026)
- [U-SEG: Uncertainty in SEGmentation -- A systematic multi-variable exploration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.15421/) (2026)
- [Can we trust our models? Epistemic calibration in second-order classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.10777/) (2026)
- [Uncertainty quantification for trustworthy deep learning: Methods and measures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.28248/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Advances in architectural design, data availability, and compute have driven remarkable progress in semantic segmentation. Yet, these models often rely on relaxed Bayesian assumptions, omitting critical uncertainty information needed for robust decision-making. Despite growing interest in probabilistic segmentation to address point-estimate limitations, the research landscape remains fragmented. In response, this review synthesizes foundational concepts in uncertainty modeling, analyzing how feature- and parameter-distribution modeling impact four key segmentation tasks: Observer Variability, Active Learning, Model Introspection, and Model Generalization. Our work establishes a common framework by standardizing theory, notation, and terminology, thereby bridging the gap between method developers, task specialists, and applied researchers. We then discuss critical challenges, including the nuanced distinction between uncertainty types, strong assumptions in spatial aggregation, the lack of standardized benchmarks, and pitfalls in current quantification methods. We identify promising avenues for future research, such as uncertainty-aware active learning, data-driven benchmarks, transformer-based models, and novel techniques to move from simple segmentation problems to uncertainty in holistic scene understanding. Based on our analysis, we offer practical guidelines for researchers on method selection, evaluation, reproducibility, and meaningful uncertainty estimation. Ultimately, our goal is to facilitate the development of more reliable, efficient, and interpretable segmentation models that can be confidently deployed in real-world applications.