# Causal Adjacency Learning for Spatiotemporal Prediction Over Graphs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.16142 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.16142/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 26 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Nov 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [Spatial-Temporal Fusion Graph Neural Networks for Traffic Flow Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.09641/) (2020)
- [Learning Causally Invariant Representations for Out-of-Distribution Generalization on Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05441/) (2022)
- [Debiasing Graph Neural Networks via Learning Disentangled Causal Substructure](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.14107/) (2022)
- [Deciphering Spatio-Temporal Graph Forecasting: A Causal Lens and Treatment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.13378/) (2023)
- [Model-Powered Conditional Independence Test](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.06138/) (2017)
- [ST-MLP: A Cascaded Spatio-Temporal Linear Framework with Channel-Independence Strategy for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.07496/) (2023)
- [Event-Aware Multimodal Mobility Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.08443/) (2021)
- [Defending Graph Convolutional Networks against Dynamic Graph Perturbations via Bayesian Self-supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.03762/) (2022)
- [Robust Node Classification on Graphs: Jointly from Bayesian Label Transition and Topology-based Label Propagation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.09779/) (2022)
- [ST-GIN: An Uncertainty Quantification Approach in Traffic Data Imputation with Spatio-temporal Graph Attention and Bidirectional Recurrent United Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.06480/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Causal Learning for Heterogeneous Subgroups Based on Nonlinear Causal Kernel Clustering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.11622/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Spatiotemporal prediction over graphs (STPG) is crucial for transportation systems. In existing STPG models, an adjacency matrix is an important component that captures the relations among nodes over graphs. However, most studies calculate the adjacency matrix by directly memorizing the data, such as distance- and correlation-based matrices. These adjacency matrices do not consider potential pattern shift for the test data, and may result in suboptimal performance if the test data has a different distribution from the training one. This issue is known as the Out-of-Distribution generalization problem. To address this issue, in this paper we propose a Causal Adjacency Learning (CAL) method to discover causal relations over graphs. The learned causal adjacency matrix is evaluated on a downstream spatiotemporal prediction task using real-world graph data. Results demonstrate that our proposed adjacency matrix can capture the causal relations, and using our learned adjacency matrix can enhance prediction performance on the OOD test data, even though causal learning is not conducted in the downstream task.