# C2INet: Realizing Incremental Trajectory Prediction with Prior-Aware Continual Causal Intervention

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.12313 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.12313/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 37 of its 56 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Nov 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [Overcoming catastrophic forgetting in neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.00796/) (2016)
- [Gradient Episodic Memory for Continual Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.08840/) (2017)
- [VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.04259/) (2020)
- [Learning to Learn without Forgetting by Maximizing Transfer and Minimizing Interference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.11910/) (2018)
- [Adversarial Autoencoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.05644/) (2015)
- [AgentFormer: Agent-Aware Transformers for Socio-Temporal Multi-Agent Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14023/) (2021)
- [Learning Representations for Counterfactual Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.03661/) (2016)
- [On Tiny Episodic Memories in Continual Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.10486/) (2019)
- [Multimodal Trajectory Predictions for Autonomous Driving using Deep Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.10732/) (2018)
- [VAE with a VampPrior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07120/) (2017)
- [It Is Not the Journey but the Destination: Endpoint Conditioned Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.02025/) (2020)
- [Causal Intervention for Weakly-Supervised Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.12547/) (2020)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Transformer Networks for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.08514/) (2020)
- [Multimodal Motion Prediction with Stacked Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.11624/) (2021)
- [From Goals, Waypoints & Paths To Long Term Human Trajectory Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.01526/) (2020)
- [MTR++: Multi-Agent Motion Prediction with Symmetric Scene Modeling and Guided Intention Querying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.17770/) (2023)
- [Multi-Agent Tensor Fusion for Contextual Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.04776/) (2019)
- [GroupNet: Multiscale Hypergraph Neural Networks for Trajectory Prediction with Relational Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.08770/) (2022)
- [SGCN:Sparse Graph Convolution Network for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.01528/) (2021)
- [Uncertainty-aware Short-term Motion Prediction of Traffic Actors for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.05819/) (2018)
- [Remember Intentions: Retrospective-Memory-based Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11474/) (2022)
- [GRIP++: Enhanced Graph-based Interaction-aware Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.07792/) (2019)
- [Sentence Embedding Alignment for Lifelong Relation Extraction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.02588/) (2019)
- [Uncovering the Missing Pattern: Unified Framework Towards Trajectory Imputation and Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16005/) (2023)
- [Human Trajectory Prediction via Counterfactual Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.14202/) (2021)
- [Towards Robust and Adaptive Motion Forecasting: A Causal Representation Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.14820/) (2021)
- [LC-LLM: Explainable Lane-Change Intention and Trajectory Predictions with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.18344/) (2024)
- [FEND: A Future Enhanced Distribution-Aware Contrastive Learning Framework for Long-tail Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16574/) (2023)
- [PredictionNet: Real-Time Joint Probabilistic Traffic Prediction for Planning, Control, and Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.11094/) (2021)
- [Expanding the Deployment Envelope of Behavior Prediction via Adaptive Meta-Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.11820/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Trajectory prediction for multi-agents in complex scenarios is crucial for applications like autonomous driving. However, existing methods often overlook environmental biases, which leads to poor generalization. Additionally, hardware constraints limit the use of large-scale data across environments, and continual learning settings exacerbate the challenge of catastrophic forgetting. To address these issues, we propose the Continual Causal Intervention (C2INet) method for generalizable multi-agent trajectory prediction within a continual learning framework. Using variational inference, we align environment-related prior with posterior estimator of confounding factors in the latent space, thereby intervening in causal correlations that affect trajectory representation. Furthermore, we store optimal variational priors across various scenarios using a memory queue, ensuring continuous debiasing during incremental task training. The proposed C2INet enhances adaptability to diverse tasks while preserving previous task information to prevent catastrophic forgetting. It also incorporates pruning strategies to mitigate overfitting. Comparative evaluations on three real and synthetic complex datasets against state-of-the-art methods demonstrate that our proposed method consistently achieves reliable prediction performance, effectively mitigating confounding factors unique to different scenarios. This highlights the practical value of our method for real-world applications.