# Leveraging LLMs for Predictive Insights in Food Policy and Behavioral Interventions

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.08563 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.08563/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 21 of its 55 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 Nov 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Sentence-BERT: Sentence Embeddings using Siamese BERT-Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.10084/) (2019)
- [Prefix-Tuning: Optimizing Continuous Prompts for Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.00190/) (2021)
- [The Power of Scale for Parameter-Efficient Prompt Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.08691/) (2021)
- [Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03442/) (2023)
- [Lost in the Middle: How Language Models Use Long Contexts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.03172/) (2023)
- [Pre-train, Prompt, and Predict: A Systematic Survey of Prompting Methods in Natural Language Processing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.13586/) (2021)
- [BloombergGPT: A Large Language Model for Finance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17564/) (2023)
- [Quantifying Language Models' Sensitivity to Spurious Features in Prompt Design or: How I learned to start worrying about prompt formatting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.11324/) (2023)
- [An Empirical Study of Catastrophic Forgetting in Large Language Models During Continual Fine-tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.08747/) (2023)
- [Using Large Language Models to Simulate Multiple Humans and Replicate Human Subject Studies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.10264/) (2022)
- [Large Language Models for Mathematical Reasoning: Progresses and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.00157/) (2024)
- [Emergent Analogical Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09196/) (2022)
- [PIXIU: A Large Language Model, Instruction Data and Evaluation Benchmark for Finance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05443/) (2023)
- [Few-shot Fine-tuning vs. In-context Learning: A Fair Comparison and Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.16938/) (2023)
- [Can ChatGPT Forecast Stock Price Movements? Return Predictability and Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.07619/) (2023)
- [The Impact of Large Language Models on Scientific Discovery: a Preliminary Study using GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07361/) (2023)
- [Universal Language Model Fine-tuning for Text Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.06146/) (2018)
- [Fine Tuning LLM for Enterprise: Practical Guidelines and Recommendations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.10779/) (2024)
- [What do LLMs Know about Financial Markets? A Case Study on Reddit Market Sentiment Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.11311/) (2022)
- [Using LLMs to Model the Beliefs and Preferences of Targeted Populations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20252/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Food consumption and production contribute significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions, making them crucial entry points for mitigating climate change and maintaining a liveable planet. Over the past two decades, food policy initiatives have explored interventions to reshape production and consumption patterns, focusing on reducing food waste and curbing ruminant meat consumption. While the evidence of "what works" improves, evaluating which policies are appropriate and effective in specific contexts remains difficult due to external validity challenges. This paper demonstrates that a fine-tuned large language model (LLM) can accurately predict the direction of outcomes in approximately 80% of empirical studies measuring dietary-based impacts (e.g. food choices, sales, waste) resulting from behavioral interventions and policies. Approximately 75 prompts were required to achieve optimal results, with performance showing signs of catastrophic loss beyond this point. Our findings indicate that greater input detail enhances predictive accuracy, although the model still faces challenges with unseen studies, underscoring the importance of a representative training sample. As LLMs continue to improve and diversify, they hold promise for advancing data-driven, evidence-based policymaking.