# Graph Neural Network Surrogates to leverage Mechanistic Expert Knowledge towards Reliable and Immediate Pandemic Response

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.06500 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.06500/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 65 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Nov 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [A Comprehensive Survey on Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.00596/) (2019)
- [Fast Graph Representation Learning with PyTorch Geometric](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.02428/) (2019)
- [Spatial Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks for Skeleton-Based Action Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.07455/) (2018)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [Predict then Propagate: Graph Neural Networks meet Personalized PageRank](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.05997/) (2018)
- [Graph Neural Networks with convolutional ARMA filters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.01343/) (2019)
- [Examining COVID-19 Forecasting using Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.03113/) (2020)
- [A Physics-Informed Deep Learning Paradigm for Traffic State and Fundamental Diagram Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.03142/) (2021)
- [Graph Message Passing with Cross-location Attentions for Long-term ILI Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.10202/) (2019)
- [Bayesian calibration of stochastic agent based model via random forest](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.19524/) (2024)
- [Agent-based modeling for realistic reproduction of human mobility and contact behavior to evaluate test and isolation strategies in epidemic infectious disease spread](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.08050/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Differentially private federated learning for localized control of infectious disease dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.14024/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

During the COVID-19 crisis, mechanistic models have guided evidence-based decision making. However, time-critical decisions in a dynamical environment limit the time available to gather supporting evidence. We address this bottleneck by developing a graph neural network (GNN) surrogate of an age-structured and spatially resolved mechanistic metapopulation simulation model. This combined approach complements classical modeling approaches which are mostly mechanistic and purely data-driven machine learning approaches which are often black box. Our design of experiments spans outbreak and persistent-threat regimes, up to three contact change points, and age-structured contact matrices on a spatial graph with 400 nodes representing German counties. We benchmark multiple GNN layers and identify an ARMAConv-based architecture that offers a strong accuracy-runtime trade-off. Across horizons of 30-90 day simulation and prediction, allowing up to three contact change points, the surrogate model attains 10-27 % mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) while delivering (near) constant runtime with respect to the forecast horizon. Our approach accelerates evaluation by up to 28,670 times compared with the mechanistic model, allowing responsive decision support in time-critical scenarios and straightforward web integration. These results show how GNN surrogates can translate complex metapopulation models into immediate, reliable tools for pandemic response.