# Difference-in-Differences with Time-varying Continuous Treatments using Double/Debiased Machine Learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.21105 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21105/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 1 of its 31 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Oct 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Nonparametric methods for doubly robust estimation of continuous treatment effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1507.00747/) (2015)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [xtdml: Double Machine Learning Estimation to Static Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects in R](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.15965/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We propose a difference-in-differences (DiD) framework designed for time-varying continuous treatments across multiple periods. Specifically, we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET) by comparing distinct non-zero treatment intensities. Identification rests on a conditional parallel trends assumption that accounts for observed covariates and past treatment histories. Our approach allows for lagged treatment effects and, in repeated cross-sectional settings, accommodates compositional changes in covariates. We develop kernel-based ATET estimators for both repeated cross-sections and panel data, leveraging the double/debiased machine learning framework to handle potentially high-dimensional covariates and histories. We establish the asymptotic properties of our estimators under mild regularity conditions and demonstrate via simulations that their undersmoothed versions perform well in finite samples. As an empirical illustration, we apply our estimator to assess the effect of the second-dose COVID-19 vaccination rate in Brazil and find that higher vaccination rates reduce COVID-19-related mortality after a lag of several weeks.