# Rethinking the Uncertainty: A Critical Review and Analysis in the Era of Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.20199 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.20199/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 47 of its 116 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Oct 2024.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 47)

- [Training a Helpful and Harmless Assistant with Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.05862/) (2022)
- [Switch Transformers: Scaling to Trillion Parameter Models with Simple and Efficient Sparsity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.03961/) (2021)
- [A Survey of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.18223/) (2023)
- [A Survey on Hallucination in Large Language Models: Principles, Taxonomy, Challenges, and Open Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.05232/) (2023)
- [Relational inductive biases, deep learning, and graph networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01261/) (2018)
- [Inference-Time Intervention: Eliciting Truthful Answers from a Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03341/) (2023)
- [A General Language Assistant as a Laboratory for Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.00861/) (2021)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [Siren's Song in the AI Ocean: A Survey on Hallucination in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.01219/) (2023)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03342/) (2021)
- [The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.13734/) (2023)
- [Fine-Tuning Pretrained Language Models: Weight Initializations, Data Orders, and Early Stopping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06305/) (2020)
- [Why ReLU networks yield high-confidence predictions far away from the training data and how to mitigate the problem](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.05720/) (2018)
- [Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19187/) (2023)
- [Do Large Language Models Know What They Don't Know?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18153/) (2023)
- [Pitfalls of In-Domain Uncertainty Estimation and Ensembling in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06470/) (2020)
- [Exploring Length Generalization in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.04901/) (2022)
- [Self-Evaluation Guided Beam Search for Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.00633/) (2023)
- [Sycophancy to Subterfuge: Investigating Reward-Tampering in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.10162/) (2024)
- [Secrets of RLHF in Large Language Models Part II: Reward Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06080/) (2024)
- [The Effect of Sampling Temperature on Problem Solving in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.05201/) (2024)
- [Bias Out-of-the-Box: An Empirical Analysis of Intersectional Occupational Biases in Popular Generative Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.04130/) (2021)
- [Distributional Preference Learning: Understanding and Accounting for Hidden Context in RLHF](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.08358/) (2023)
- [Holistic Evaluation of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.09110/) (2022)
- [Analyzing Uncertainty in Neural Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.00047/) (2018)
- [Do Language Models Know When They're Hallucinating References?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18248/) (2023)
- [Relying on the Unreliable: The Impact of Language Models' Reluctance to Express Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06730/) (2024)
- [Investigating Data Contamination for Pre-training Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06059/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [An overview of model uncertainty and variability in LLM-based sentiment analysis. Challenges, mitigation strategies and the role of explainability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.04462/) (2025)
- [BAS: A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Evaluating Large Language Model Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.03216/) (2026)
- [Beyond Correctness: Confidence-Aware Reward Modeling for Enhancing Large Language Model Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.07483/) (2025)
- [VLM-UQBench: A Benchmark for Modality-Specific and Cross-Modality Uncertainties in Vision Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.09214/) (2026)
- [VIDEE: Visual and Interactive Decomposition, Execution, and Evaluation of Text Analytics with Intelligent Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.21582/) (2025)
- [Position: Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs is Just Unsupervised Clustering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.19220/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have become fundamental to a broad spectrum of artificial intelligence applications. As the use of LLMs expands, precisely estimating the uncertainty in their predictions has become crucial. Current methods often struggle to accurately identify, measure, and address the true uncertainty, with many focusing primarily on estimating model confidence. This discrepancy is largely due to an incomplete understanding of where, when, and how uncertainties are injected into models. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework specifically designed to identify and understand the types and sources of uncertainty, aligned with the unique characteristics of LLMs. Our framework enhances the understanding of the diverse landscape of uncertainties by systematically categorizing and defining each type, establishing a solid foundation for developing targeted methods that can precisely quantify these uncertainties. We also provide a detailed introduction to key related concepts and examine the limitations of current methods in mission-critical and safety-sensitive applications. The paper concludes with a perspective on future directions aimed at enhancing the reliability and practical adoption of these methods in real-world scenarios.