# Can We Predict Performance of Large Models across Vision-Language Tasks?

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.10112 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10112/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in VLM benchmarks and visual reasoning, one of 16 directions in Multimodal LLMs / vision-language models.
- Builds on 56 of its 83 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 Oct 2024.

## Placed in

- Multimodal LLMs / vision-language models / [VLM benchmarks and visual reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/mllm/vlm-benchmarks-and-visual-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 56)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Visual Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08485/) (2023)
- [BERTScore: Evaluating Text Generation with BERT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.09675/) (2019)
- [Improved Baselines with Visual Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03744/) (2023)
- [Qwen2-VL: Enhancing Vision-Language Model's Perception of the World at Any Resolution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12191/) (2024)
- [Gemini 1.5: Unlocking multimodal understanding across millions of tokens of context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.05530/) (2024)
- [InstructBLIP: Towards General-purpose Vision-Language Models with Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.06500/) (2023)
- [MiniGPT-4: Enhancing Vision-Language Understanding with Advanced Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.10592/) (2023)
- [Visual Genome: Connecting Language and Vision Using Crowdsourced Dense Image Annotations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.07332/) (2016)
- [InternVL: Scaling up Vision Foundation Models and Aligning for Generic Visual-Linguistic Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.14238/) (2023)
- [VQA: Visual Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.00468/) (2015)
- [MMBench: Is Your Multi-modal Model an All-around Player?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.06281/) (2023)
- [MMMU: A Massive Multi-discipline Multimodal Understanding and Reasoning Benchmark for Expert AGI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.16502/) (2023)
- [Learn to Explain: Multimodal Reasoning via Thought Chains for Science Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.09513/) (2022)
- [Evaluating Object Hallucination in Large Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10355/) (2023)
- [MME: A Comprehensive Evaluation Benchmark for Multimodal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13394/) (2023)
- [Video-MME: The First-Ever Comprehensive Evaluation Benchmark of Multi-modal LLMs in Video Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.21075/) (2024)
- [OK-VQA: A Visual Question Answering Benchmark Requiring External Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00067/) (2019)
- [How Far Are We to GPT-4V? Closing the Gap to Commercial Multimodal Models with Open-Source Suites](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.16821/) (2024)
- [MPNet: Masked and Permuted Pre-training for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.09297/) (2020)
- [Cambrian-1: A Fully Open, Vision-Centric Exploration of Multimodal LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16860/) (2024)
- [Remote Sensing Image Scene Classification: Benchmark and State of the Art](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.00121/) (2017)
- [Eyes Wide Shut? Exploring the Visual Shortcomings of Multimodal LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06209/) (2024)
- [DeepSeek-VL: Towards Real-World Vision-Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.05525/) (2024)
- [BARTScore: Evaluating Generated Text as Text Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.11520/) (2021)
- [LongVideoBench: A Benchmark for Long-context Interleaved Video-Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.15754/) (2024)
- [From Recognition to Cognition: Visual Commonsense Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.10830/) (2018)
- [mPLUG-Owl2: Revolutionizing Multi-modal Large Language Model with Modality Collaboration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.04257/) (2023)
- [Winoground: Probing Vision and Language Models for Visio-Linguistic Compositionality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.03162/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Anticipatory Evaluation of Language Models: Predicting LLM Benchmark Scores from Descriptions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.20645/) (2025)
- [STAR : Bridging Statistical and Agentic Reasoning for Large Model Performance Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.12143/) (2026)
- [Stop Guessing When to Stop Testing: Efficient Model Evaluation with Just Enough Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.08522/) (2026)
- [Beyond Scores: Diagnostic LLM Evaluation via Fine-Grained Abilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.12191/) (2026)
- [Uncertainty-Aware Decision Making in Multimodal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.17084/) (2026)
- [When Does a Skill Add Value? Task-Conditional Gain Prediction for Selective Skill Use](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.32274/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Evaluating large vision-language models (LVLMs) is very expensive, due to high computational cost and the wide variety of tasks. The good news is that if we already have some observed performance scores, we may be able to infer unknown ones. In this study, we propose a new framework for predicting unknown performance scores based on observed ones from other LVLMs or tasks. We first formulate the performance prediction as a matrix completion task. Specifically, we construct a sparse performance matrix boldsymbolR, where each entry Rmn represents the performance score of the m-th model on the n-th dataset. By applying probabilistic matrix factorization (PMF) with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), we can complete the performance matrix, i.e., predict unknown scores. Additionally, we estimate the uncertainty of performance prediction based on MCMC. Practitioners can evaluate their models on untested tasks with higher uncertainty first, which quickly reduces the prediction errors. We further introduce several improvements to enhance PMF for scenarios with sparse observed performance scores. Our experiments demonstrate the accuracy of PMF in predicting unknown scores, the reliability of uncertainty estimates in ordering evaluations, and the effectiveness of our enhancements for handling sparse data.