# Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspective

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.06494 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.06494/

## Key facts

- Cited by 25 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 154 of its 214 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Oct 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 154)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [Billion-scale similarity search with GPUs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.08734/) (2017)
- [LightGCN: Simplifying and Powering Graph Convolution Network for Recommendation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.02126/) (2020)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.04173/) (2016)
- [Conformalized Quantile Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.03222/) (2019)
- [Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.06019/) (2019)
- [Meta-learners for Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03461/) (2017)
- [Hopfield Networks is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.02217/) (2020)
- [Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coverage](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.02544/) (2020)
- [Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.00170/) (2021)
- [Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.14193/) (2020)
- [Conformal prediction beyond exchangeability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.13415/) (2022)
- [Confident Adaptive Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.07061/) (2022)
- [Conformal Risk Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.02814/) (2022)
- [Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.02703/) (2021)
- [Least Ambiguous Set-Valued Classifiers with Bounded Error Levels](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.00451/) (2016)
- [Predictive inference with the jackknife+](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.02928/) (2019)
- [Conformal Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.10193/) (2023)
- [Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07282/) (2022)
- [Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.06138/) (2020)
- [Conformal Prediction with Large Language Models for Multi-Choice Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18404/) (2023)
- [Language Models with Conformal Factuality Guarantees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.10978/) (2024)
- [Conformal Inference for Online Prediction with Arbitrary Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.08401/) (2022)
- [Benchmarking LLMs via Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.12794/) (2024)
- [Safe Planning in Dynamic Environments using Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.10254/) (2022)
- [Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.07972/) (2020)
- [Localized Conformal Prediction: A Generalized Inference Framework for Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.08460/) (2021)
- [Class-Conditional Conformal Prediction with Many Classes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.09335/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 25 of 25)

- [Multivariate Standardized Residuals for Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.20941/) (2025)
- [Extreme Conformal Prediction: Reliable Intervals for High-Impact Events](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.08578/) (2025)
- [WQLCP: Weighted Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Robust Uncertainty Quantification Under Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.19587/) (2025)
- [Set-Valued Prediction for Large Language Models with Feasibility-Aware Coverage Guarantees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.22966/) (2026)
- [Towards Reliable and Holistic Visual In-Context Learning Prompt Selection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25989/) (2025)
- [Dual-Splitting Conformal Prediction for Multi-Step Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.21251/) (2025)
- [Trusted Uncertainty in Large Language Models: A Unified Framework for Confidence Calibration and Risk-Controlled Refusal](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.01455/) (2025)
- [Efficient Conformal Prediction for Regression Models under Label Noise](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.15120/) (2025)
- [Elements of Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.23923/) (2026)
- [Aerial Image Classification in Scarce and Unconstrained Environments via Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.17655/) (2025)
- [Trustworthy Prediction with Gaussian Process Knowledge Scores](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.18630/) (2025)
- [Effect of Data Augmentation on Conformal Prediction for Diabetic Retinopathy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.14266/) (2025)
- [Q-Sat AI: Machine Learning-Based Decision Support for Data Saturation in Qualitative Studies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.01935/) (2025)
- [Weighted Conformal Prediction Provides Adaptive and Valid Mask-Conditional Coverage for General Missing Data Mechanisms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.14221/) (2025)
- [Communication-Efficient Byzantine-Robust Federated Conformal Prediction via Partial Sharing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.18396/) (2026)
- [LoBoost: Fast Model-Native Local Conformal Prediction for Gradient-Boosted Trees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.22432/) (2026)
- [Beyond Accuracy: Reliability and Uncertainty Estimation in Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.10731/) (2026)
- [ARTEMIS: A Neuro Symbolic Framework for Economically Constrained Market Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.18107/) (2026)
- [Stable Localized Conformal Prediction via Transduction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.01452/) (2026)
- [Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Reliable and Explainable Medical Image Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.12917/) (2026)
- [Learning Context-conditioned Gaussian Overbounds for Convolution-Based Uncertainty Propagation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.15789/) (2026)
- [Coordinate Singularities Break Conformal Coverage for Gaze and Head Pose](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.02565/) (2026)
- [A Unified Perspective on Conformal Prediction and Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization for Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.29789/) (2026)
- [Can VLMs Reliably Assess Sidewalk Accessibility Attributes from Pedestrian-Level Imagery?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.17882/) (2026)
- [Multivariate conformal uncertainty propagation in multitask atomistic simulation: Successes and pitfalls](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.31384/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, reliably provides valid predictive inference for black-box models. CP constructs prediction sets that contain the true output with a specified probability. However, modern data science diverse modalities, along with increasing data and model complexity, challenge traditional CP methods. These developments have spurred novel approaches to address evolving scenarios. This survey reviews the foundational concepts of CP and recent advancements from a data-centric perspective, including applications to structured, unstructured, and dynamic data. We also discuss the challenges and opportunities CP faces in large-scale data and models.