# PostCast: Generalizable Postprocessing for Precipitation Nowcasting via Unsupervised Blurriness Modeling

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.05805 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.05805/

## Key facts

- Cited by 10 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 24 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Oct 2024.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Diffusion Models Beat GANs on Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05233/) (2021)
- [Generative Modeling by Estimating Gradients of the Data Distribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.05600/) (2019)
- [Improved Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09672/) (2021)
- [Structured Denoising Diffusion Models in Discrete State-Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03006/) (2021)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [Palette: Image-to-Image Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.05826/) (2021)
- [Improved Techniques for Training Score-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.09011/) (2020)
- [Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Generative Models of Radar](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00954/) (2021)
- [Generative Diffusion Prior for Unified Image Restoration and Enhancement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.01247/) (2023)
- [SimVP: Simpler yet Better Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.05099/) (2022)
- [Deep Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting: A Benchmark and A New Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03458/) (2017)
- [PredRNN: A Recurrent Neural Network for Spatiotemporal Predictive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.09504/) (2021)
- [FengWu: Pushing the Skillful Global Medium-range Weather Forecast beyond 10 Days Lead](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.02948/) (2023)
- [Earthformer: Exploring Space-Time Transformers for Earth System Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05833/) (2022)
- [PreDiff: Precipitation Nowcasting with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.10422/) (2023)
- [Temporal Attention Unit: Towards Efficient Spatiotemporal Predictive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.12126/) (2022)
- [Multiscale Structure Guided Diffusion for Image Deblurring](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.01789/) (2022)
- [DiffCast: A Unified Framework via Residual Diffusion for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06734/) (2023)
- [CasCast: Skillful High-resolution Precipitation Nowcasting via Cascaded Modelling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.04290/) (2024)
- [FengWu-GHR: Learning the Kilometer-scale Medium-range Global Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.00059/) (2024)
- [ExtremeCast: Boosting Extreme Value Prediction for Global Weather Forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.01295/) (2024)
- [Benchmarking Physics-Informed Time-Series Models for Operational Global Station Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.14399/) (2024)
- [WeatherFormer: Empowering Global Numerical Weather Forecasting with Space-Time Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.16321/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [A Survey of Scientific Large Language Models: From Data Foundations to Agent Frontiers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.21148/) (2025)
- [WeatherGFM: Learning A Weather Generalist Foundation Model via In-context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.05420/) (2024)
- [Transforming Weather Data from Pixel to Latent Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.06623/) (2025)
- [MODS: Multi-source Observations Conditional Diffusion Model for Meteorological State Downscaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.14798/) (2025)
- [LangPrecip: Language-Aware Multimodal Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.22317/) (2025)
- [DAWP: A framework for global observation forecasting via Data Assimilation and Weather Prediction in satellite observation space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.15978/) (2025)
- [SynWeather: Weather Observation Data Synthesis across Multiple Regions and Variables via a General Diffusion Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.08291/) (2025)
- [Station2Radar: query conditioned gaussian splatting for precipitation field](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.00418/) (2026)
- [Earth Science Foundation Models: From Perception to Reasoning and Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.12542/) (2026)
- [A Free Knob: Decoupling Calibration and Predictive Skill in Threshold-Based Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.33457/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Precipitation nowcasting plays a pivotal role in socioeconomic sectors, especially in severe convective weather warnings. Although notable progress has been achieved by approaches mining the spatiotemporal correlations with deep learning, these methods still suffer severe blurriness as the lead time increases, which hampers accurate predictions for extreme precipitation. To alleviate blurriness, researchers explore generative methods conditioned on blurry predictions. However, the pairs of blurry predictions and corresponding ground truth need to be generated in advance, making the training pipeline cumbersome and limiting the generality of generative models within blur modes that appear in training data. By rethinking the blurriness in precipitation nowcasting as a blur kernel acting on predictions, we propose an unsupervised postprocessing method to eliminate the blurriness without the requirement of training with the pairs of blurry predictions and corresponding ground truth. Specifically, we utilize blurry predictions to guide the generation process of a pre-trained unconditional denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) to obtain high-fidelity predictions with eliminated blurriness. A zero-shot blur kernel estimation mechanism and an auto-scale denoise guidance strategy are introduced to adapt the unconditional DDPM to any blurriness modes varying from datasets and lead times in precipitation nowcasting. Extensive experiments are conducted on 7 precipitation radar datasets, demonstrating the generality and superiority of our method.