# Efficient Model-Based Reinforcement Learning Through Optimistic Thompson Sampling

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.04988 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.04988/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in RL theory and sample complexity, one of 15 directions in Deep reinforcement learning methods.
- Builds on 50 of its 71 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 Oct 2024.

## Placed in

- Deep reinforcement learning methods / [RL theory and sample complexity](https://mlsanity.com/deeprl/rl-theory-and-sample-complexity/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 50)

- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Soft Actor-Critic: Off-Policy Maximum Entropy Deep Reinforcement Learning with a Stochastic Actor](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.01290/) (2018)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Continuous control with deep reinforcement learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1509.02971/) (2015)
- [Dream to Control: Learning Behaviors by Latent Imagination](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01603/) (2019)
- [D4RL: Datasets for Deep Data-Driven Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.07219/) (2020)
- [Learning Latent Dynamics for Planning from Pixels](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.04551/) (2018)
- [Mastering Diverse Domains through World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.04104/) (2023)
- [Curiosity-driven Exploration by Self-supervised Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.05363/) (2017)
- [End-to-End Training of Deep Visuomotor Policies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1504.00702/) (2015)
- [Deep Reinforcement Learning in a Handful of Trials using Probabilistic Dynamics Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.12114/) (2018)
- [When to Trust Your Model: Model-Based Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.08253/) (2019)
- [GPyTorch: Blackbox Matrix-Matrix Gaussian Process Inference with GPU Acceleration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.11165/) (2018)
- [Provably Efficient Reinforcement Learning with Linear Function Approximation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.05388/) (2019)
- [TD-MPC2: Scalable, Robust World Models for Continuous Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.16828/) (2023)
- [Model-Based Reinforcement Learning for Atari](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.00374/) (2019)
- [A Tutorial on Thompson Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.02038/) (2017)
- [Temporal Difference Learning for Model Predictive Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.04955/) (2022)
- [Planning to Explore via Self-Supervised World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.05960/) (2020)
- [On Kernelized Multi-armed Bandits](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.00445/) (2017)
- [Neural Network Dynamics for Model-Based Deep Reinforcement Learning with Model-Free Fine-Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.02596/) (2017)
- [(More) Efficient Reinforcement Learning via Posterior Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1306.0940/) (2013)
- [Scalable Variational Gaussian Process Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1411.2005/) (2014)
- [Concrete Dropout](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07832/) (2017)
- [How to Train Your Robot with Deep Reinforcement Learning; Lessons We've Learned](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.02915/) (2021)
- [Action-Conditional Video Prediction using Deep Networks in Atari Games](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1507.08750/) (2015)
- [Learning to Optimize via Information-Directed Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1403.5556/) (2014)
- [Continuous Deep Q-Learning with Model-based Acceleration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.00748/) (2016)
- [Why is Posterior Sampling Better than Optimism for Reinforcement Learning?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.00215/) (2016)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Emergence of Exploration in Policy Gradient Reinforcement Learning via Retrying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.00151/) (2026)
- [No-Regret Thompson Sampling for Finite-Horizon Markov Decision Processes with Gaussian Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.20725/) (2025)
- [Posterior Sampling Reinforcement Learning with Gaussian Processes for Continuous Control: Sublinear Regret Bounds for Unbounded State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.08287/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Learning complex robot behavior through interactions with the environment necessitates principled exploration. Effective strategies should prioritize exploring regions of the state-action space that maximize rewards, with optimistic exploration emerging as a promising direction aligned with this idea and enabling sample-efficient reinforcement learning. However, existing methods overlook a crucial aspect: the need for optimism to be informed by a belief connecting the reward and state. To address this, we propose a practical, theoretically grounded approach to optimistic exploration based on Thompson sampling. Our model structure is the first that allows for reasoning about joint uncertainty over transitions and rewards. We apply our method on a set of MuJoCo and VMAS continuous control tasks. Our experiments demonstrate that optimistic exploration significantly accelerates learning in environments with sparse rewards, action penalties, and difficult-to-explore regions. Furthermore, we provide insights into when optimism is beneficial and emphasize the critical role of model uncertainty in guiding exploration.