# Masked Autoregressive Model for Weather Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.20117 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.20117/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 39 of its 54 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Sep 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 39)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [High-Resolution Image Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.10752/) (2021)
- [Masked Autoencoders Are Scalable Vision Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.06377/) (2021)
- [Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.06450/) (2016)
- [SGDR: Stochastic Gradient Descent with Warm Restarts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.03983/) (2016)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [A ConvNet for the 2020s](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.03545/) (2022)
- [Gaussian Error Linear Units (GELUs)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.08415/) (2016)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [Real-Time Single Image and Video Super-Resolution Using an Efficient Sub-Pixel Convolutional Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.05158/) (2016)
- [Sigmoid-Weighted Linear Units for Neural Network Function Approximation in Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.03118/) (2017)
- [FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11214/) (2022)
- [Unsupervised Learning of Video Representations using LSTMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.04681/) (2015)
- [Deep Spatio-Temporal Residual Networks for Citywide Crowd Flows Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.00081/) (2016)
- [MCVD: Masked Conditional Video Diffusion for Prediction, Generation, and Interpolation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.09853/) (2022)
- [GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.12794/) (2022)
- [Stochastic Video Generation with a Learned Prior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.07687/) (2018)
- [Stochastic Variational Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.11252/) (2017)
- [Video Frame Synthesis using Deep Voxel Flow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.02463/) (2017)
- [Disentangling Physical Dynamics from Unknown Factors for Unsupervised Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.01460/) (2020)
- [SimVP: Simpler yet Better Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.05099/) (2022)
- [PredRNN: A Recurrent Neural Network for Spatiotemporal Predictive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.09504/) (2021)
- [Forecasting Global Weather with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07575/) (2022)
- [Earthformer: Exploring Space-Time Transformers for Earth System Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05833/) (2022)
- [MetNet: A Neural Weather Model for Precipitation Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.12140/) (2020)
- [PredRNN++: Towards A Resolution of the Deep-in-Time Dilemma in Spatiotemporal Predictive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.06300/) (2018)
- [Stochastic Latent Residual Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.09219/) (2020)
- [Improved Conditional VRNNs for Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.12165/) (2019)
- [Memory In Memory: A Predictive Neural Network for Learning Higher-Order Non-Stationarity from Spatiotemporal Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.07490/) (2018)
- [Convolutional Tensor-Train LSTM for Spatio-temporal Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.09131/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [RainODE: Continuous-Time Precipitation Forecasting with Latent Neural ODEs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.29855/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The growing impact of global climate change amplifies the need for accurate and reliable weather forecasting. Traditional autoregressive approaches, while effective for temporal modeling, suffer from error accumulation in long-term prediction tasks. The lead time embedding method has been suggested to address this issue, but it struggles to maintain crucial correlations in atmospheric events. To overcome these challenges, we propose the Masked Autoregressive Model for Weather Forecasting (MAM4WF). This model leverages masked modeling, where portions of the input data are masked during training, allowing the model to learn robust spatiotemporal relationships by reconstructing the missing information. MAM4WF combines the advantages of both autoregressive and lead time embedding methods, offering flexibility in lead time modeling while iteratively integrating predictions. We evaluate MAM4WF across weather, climate forecasting, and video frame prediction datasets, demonstrating superior performance on five test datasets.