# From News to Forecast: Integrating Event Analysis in LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting with Reflection

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.17515 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.17515/

## Key facts

- Cited by 98 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Financial trading and forecasting agents, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 35 of its 68 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Sep 2024.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Financial trading and forecasting agents](https://mlsanity.com/agents/financial-trading-and-forecasting-agents/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 35)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [Llama 2: Open Foundation and Fine-Tuned Chat Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09288/) (2023)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11916/) (2022)
- [Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03442/) (2023)
- [Tree of Thoughts: Deliberate Problem Solving with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10601/) (2023)
- [Mistral 7B](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06825/) (2023)
- [A Survey of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.18223/) (2023)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Improving Factuality and Reasoning in Language Models through Multiagent Debate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14325/) (2023)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [Solving Quantitative Reasoning Problems with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.14858/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [Gemma: Open Models Based on Gemini Research and Technology](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.08295/) (2024)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01728/) (2023)
- [One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11939/) (2023)
- [Enhancing the Locality and Breaking the Memory Bottleneck of Transformer on Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00235/) (2019)
- [Large Language Models Are Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07820/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models as Tool Makers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.17126/) (2023)
- [TEMPO: Prompt-based Generative Pre-trained Transformer for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.04948/) (2023)
- [TEST: Text Prototype Aligned Embedding to Activate LLM's Ability for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.08241/) (2023)
- [UniTime: A Language-Empowered Unified Model for Cross-Domain Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.09751/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 98)

- [MTBench: A Multimodal Time Series Benchmark for Temporal Reasoning and Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.16858/) (2025)
- [From Web Search towards Agentic Deep Research: Incentivizing Search with Reasoning Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.18959/) (2025)
- [Language in the Flow of Time: Time-Series-Paired Texts Weaved into a Unified Temporal Narrative](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.08942/) (2025)
- [TimeXL: Explainable Multi-modal Time Series Prediction with LLM-in-the-Loop](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01013/) (2025)
- [ITFormer: Bridging Time Series and Natural Language for Multi-Modal QA with Large-Scale Multitask Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.20093/) (2025)
- [TS-Reasoner: Domain-Oriented Time Series Inference Agents for Reasoning and Automated Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.04047/) (2024)
- [Multi-modal Time Series Analysis: A Tutorial and Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.13709/) (2025)
- [A Survey of Reasoning and Agentic Systems in Time Series with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.11575/) (2025)
- [How Can Time Series Analysis Benefit From Multiple Modalities? A Survey and Outlook](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.11835/) (2025)
- [Time-IMM: A Dataset and Benchmark for Irregular Multimodal Multivariate Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.10412/) (2025)
- [TimeMaster: Training Time-Series Multimodal LLMs to Reason via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.13705/) (2025)
- [Enhancing LLMs for Power System Simulations: A Feedback-driven Multi-agent Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.16707/) (2024)
- [TemporalBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating LLM-Based Agents on Contextual and Event-Informed Time Series Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.13272/) (2026)
- [LLM/Agent-as-Data-Analyst: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.23988/) (2025)
- [SciTS: Scientific Time Series Understanding and Generation with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.03255/) (2025)
- [LLMs Can Teach Themselves to Better Predict the Future](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.05253/) (2025)
- [Towards Cross-Modality Modeling for Time Series Analytics: A Survey in the LLM Era](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.02583/) (2025)
- [BEDTime: A Unified Benchmark for Automatically Describing Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.05215/) (2025)
- [EngiBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating Large Language Models on Engineering Problem Solving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.17677/) (2025)
- [Inferring Events from Time Series using Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14190/) (2025)
- [CaTS-Bench: Can Language Models Describe Time Series?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.20823/) (2025)
- [Fidel-TS: A High-Fidelity Multimodal Benchmark for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.24789/) (2025)
- [Can Prompts Rewind Time for LLMs? Evaluating the Effectiveness of Prompted Knowledge Cutoffs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.02340/) (2025)
- [ClimateLLM: Efficient Weather Forecasting via Frequency-Aware Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.11059/) (2025)
- [AIA Forecaster: Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.07678/) (2025)
- [MoTime: A Dataset Suite for Multimodal Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.15072/) (2025)
- [UniCA: Unified Covariate Adaptation for Time Series Foundation Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.22039/) (2025)
- [Evaluating LLMs on Real-World Forecasting Against Expert Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.04562/) (2025)
- [Text Reinforcement for Multimodal Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.00687/) (2025)
- [A Survey of Financial AI: Architectures, Advances and Open Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.12747/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper introduces a novel approach that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) and Generative Agents to enhance time series forecasting by reasoning across both text and time series data. With language as a medium, our method adaptively integrates social events into forecasting models, aligning news content with time series fluctuations to provide richer insights. Specifically, we utilize LLM-based agents to iteratively filter out irrelevant news and employ human-like reasoning to evaluate predictions. This enables the model to analyze complex events, such as unexpected incidents and shifts in social behavior, and continuously refine the selection logic of news and the robustness of the agent's output. By integrating selected news events with time series data, we fine-tune a pre-trained LLM to predict sequences of digits in time series. The results demonstrate significant improvements in forecasting accuracy, suggesting a potential paradigm shift in time series forecasting through the effective utilization of unstructured news data.