# Generative AI-driven forecasting of oil production

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.16482 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.16482/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 20 of its 49 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Sep 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Generative Modeling by Estimating Gradients of the Data Distribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.05600/) (2019)
- [Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.3215/) (2014)
- [Transformer-XL: Attentive Language Models Beyond a Fixed-Length Context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.02860/) (2019)
- [Reformer: The Efficient Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.04451/) (2020)
- [Generating Long Sequences with Sparse Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.10509/) (2019)
- [Decision Transformer: Reinforcement Learning via Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.01345/) (2021)
- [Normalizing Flows for Probabilistic Modeling and Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02762/) (2019)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Compressive Transformers for Long-Range Sequence Modelling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.05507/) (2019)
- [Masked Autoregressive Flow for Density Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07057/) (2017)
- [Sharp Minima Can Generalize For Deep Nets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04933/) (2017)
- [Time Series Forecasting With Deep Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.13408/) (2020)
- [A Survey of Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.04554/) (2021)
- [Autoregressive Denoising Diffusion Models for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.12072/) (2021)
- [Blockwise Self-Attention for Long Document Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02972/) (2019)
- [High-Dimensional Multivariate Forecasting with Low-Rank Gaussian Copula Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.03002/) (2019)
- [Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting via Conditioned Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06103/) (2020)
- [Energy Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.07253/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Forecasting oil production from oilfields with multiple wells is an important problem in petroleum and geothermal energy extraction, as well as energy storage technologies. The accuracy of oil forecasts is a critical determinant of economic projections, hydrocarbon reserves estimation, construction of fluid processing facilities, and energy price fluctuations. Leveraging generative AI techniques, we model time series forecasting of oil and water productions across four multi-well sites spanning four decades. Our goal is to effectively model uncertainties and make precise forecasts to inform decision-making processes at the field scale. We utilize an autoregressive model known as TimeGrad and a variant of a transformer architecture named Informer, tailored specifically for forecasting long sequence time series data. Predictions from both TimeGrad and Informer closely align with the ground truth data. The overall performance of the Informer stands out, demonstrating greater efficiency compared to TimeGrad in forecasting oil production rates across all sites.