# Controlling Risk of Retrieval-augmented Generation: A Counterfactual Prompting Framework

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.16146 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.16146/

## Key facts

- Cited by 12 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in RAG robustness and adaptive retrieval, one of 15 directions in Retrieval-augmented generation.
- Builds on 37 of its 56 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Sep 2024.

## Placed in

- Retrieval-augmented generation / [RAG robustness and adaptive retrieval](https://mlsanity.com/rag/rag-robustness-and-adaptive-retrieval/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [Llama 2: Open Foundation and Fine-Tuned Chat Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09288/) (2023)
- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11401/) (2020)
- [HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.09600/) (2018)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.10997/) (2023)
- [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08909/) (2020)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Self-RAG: Learning to Retrieve, Generate, and Critique through Self-Reflection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.11511/) (2023)
- [FEVER: a large-scale dataset for Fact Extraction and VERification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05355/) (2018)
- [Improving language models by retrieving from trillions of tokens](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.04426/) (2021)
- [Leveraging Passage Retrieval with Generative Models for Open Domain Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.01282/) (2020)
- [When Not to Trust Language Models: Investigating Effectiveness of Parametric and Non-Parametric Memories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10511/) (2022)
- [Atlas: Few-shot Learning with Retrieval Augmented Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.03299/) (2022)
- [Interleaving Retrieval with Chain-of-Thought Reasoning for Knowledge-Intensive Multi-Step Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10509/) (2022)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [REPLUG: Retrieval-Augmented Black-Box Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.12652/) (2023)
- [In-Context Retrieval-Augmented Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.00083/) (2023)
- [KILT: a Benchmark for Knowledge Intensive Language Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.02252/) (2020)
- [Large Language Models Struggle to Learn Long-Tail Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.08411/) (2022)
- [Making Retrieval-Augmented Language Models Robust to Irrelevant Context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01558/) (2023)
- [Entity-Based Knowledge Conflicts in Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.05052/) (2021)
- [Adaptive Chameleon or Stubborn Sloth: Revealing the Behavior of Large Language Models in Knowledge Conflicts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.13300/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models for Information Retrieval: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.07107/) (2023)
- [Counterfactual VQA: A Cause-Effect Look at Language Bias](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.04315/) (2020)
- [Don't Hallucinate, Abstain: Identifying LLM Knowledge Gaps via Multi-LLM Collaboration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.00367/) (2024)
- [Large Language Models with Controllable Working Memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.05110/) (2022)
- [Investigating the Factual Knowledge Boundary of Large Language Models with Retrieval Augmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.11019/) (2023)
- [End-to-End Training of Multi-Document Reader and Retriever for Open-Domain Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.05346/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Retrieval Augmented Generation Evaluation in the Era of Large Language Models: A Comprehensive Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.14891/) (2025)
- [Understanding the Impact of Confidence in Retrieval Augmented Generation: A Case Study in the Medical Domain](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.20309/) (2024)
- [AttnComp: Attention-Guided Adaptive Context Compression for Retrieval-Augmented Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.17486/) (2025)
- [Know Or Not: a library for evaluating out-of-knowledge base robustness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.13545/) (2025)
- [Cooperative Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Question Answering: Mutual Information Exchange and Ranking by Contrasting Layers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.10422/) (2025)
- [When to Trust: A Causality-Aware Calibration Framework for Accurate Knowledge Graph Retrieval-Augmented Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.09241/) (2026)
- [RePCS: Diagnosing Data Memorization in LLM-Powered Retrieval-Augmented Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.15513/) (2025)
- [ERA: Evidence-based Reliability Alignment for Honest Retrieval-Augmented Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.20854/) (2026)
- [Towards Dependable Retrieval-Augmented Generation Using Factual Confidence Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.05244/) (2026)
- [Prompt-Based Abstention Fails Under Misleading Context: A Controlled Study of Small Frozen RAG Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.22228/) (2026)
- [Twin Worlds: Equivariance-Based Abstention for Evidence-Grounded Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.28018/) (2026)
- [Mapping the RAG Landscape: A Four Axis Taxonomy of Efficiency, Defense, Interactivity, and Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.01936/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has emerged as a popular solution to mitigate the hallucination issues of large language models. However, existing studies on RAG seldom address the issue of predictive uncertainty, i.e., how likely it is that a RAG model's prediction is incorrect, resulting in uncontrollable risks in real-world applications. In this work, we emphasize the importance of risk control, ensuring that RAG models proactively refuse to answer questions with low confidence. Our research identifies two critical latent factors affecting RAG's confidence in its predictions: the quality of the retrieved results and the manner in which these results are utilized. To guide RAG models in assessing their own confidence based on these two latent factors, we develop a counterfactual prompting framework that induces the models to alter these factors and analyzes the effect on their answers. We also introduce a benchmarking procedure to collect answers with the option to abstain, facilitating a series of experiments. For evaluation, we introduce several risk-related metrics and the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Our code and benchmark dataset are available at https://github.com/ict-bigdatalab/RC-RAG.