# Deep Probability Segmentation: Are segmentation models probability estimators?

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.12535 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12535/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 14 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Sep 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Accurate Uncertainties for Deep Learning Using Calibrated Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.00263/) (2018)
- [A Probabilistic U-Net for Segmentation of Ambiguous Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.05034/) (2018)
- [Mix-n-Match: Ensemble and Compositional Methods for Uncertainty Calibration in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.07329/) (2020)
- [Medical Image Segmentation Using Deep Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.13120/) (2020)
- [Deep Probability Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.10734/) (2021)
- [Quantifying the unknown impact of segmentation uncertainty on image-based simulations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.09913/) (2020)
- [Beyond Probability Partitions: Calibrating Neural Networks with Semantic Aware Grouping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.04985/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Deep learning has revolutionized various fields by enabling highly accurate predictions and estimates. One important application is probabilistic prediction, where models estimate the probability of events rather than deterministic outcomes. This approach is particularly relevant and, therefore, still unexplored for segmentation tasks where each pixel in an image needs to be classified. Conventional models often overlook the probabilistic nature of labels, but accurate uncertainty estimation is crucial for improving the reliability and applicability of models. In this study, we applied Calibrated Probability Estimation (CaPE) to segmentation tasks to evaluate its impact on model calibration. Our results indicate that while CaPE improves calibration, its effect is less pronounced compared to classification tasks, suggesting that segmentation models can inherently provide better probability estimates. We also investigated the influence of dataset size and bin optimization on the effectiveness of calibration. Our results emphasize the expressive power of segmentation models as probability estimators and incorporate probabilistic reasoning, which is crucial for applications requiring precise uncertainty quantification.