# Precise Forecasting of Sky Images Using Spatial Warping

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.12162 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12162/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 27 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 Sep 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [Future Frame Prediction for Anomaly Detection -- A New Baseline](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.09867/) (2017)
- [Disentangling Physical Dynamics from Unknown Factors for Unsupervised Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.01460/) (2020)
- [A deep learning approach to solar-irradiance forecasting in sky-videos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.04881/) (2019)
- [Estimation of solar irradiance using ground-based whole sky imagers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.02546/) (2016)
- [Sky Imager-Based Forecast of Solar Irradiance Using Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.17356/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [LenghuSky-8: An 8-Year All-Sky Cloud Dataset with Star-Aware Masks and Alt-Az Calibration for Segmentation and Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.16429/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The intermittency of solar power, due to occlusion from cloud cover, is one of the key factors inhibiting its widespread use in both commercial and residential settings. Hence, real-time forecasting of solar irradiance for grid-connected photovoltaic systems is necessary to schedule and allocate resources across the grid. Ground-based imagers that capture wide field-of-view images of the sky are commonly used to monitor cloud movement around a particular site in an effort to forecast solar irradiance. However, these wide FOV imagers capture a distorted image of sky image, where regions near the horizon are heavily compressed. This hinders the ability to precisely predict cloud motion near the horizon which especially affects prediction over longer time horizons. In this work, we combat the aforementioned constraint by introducing a deep learning method to predict a future sky image frame with higher resolution than previous methods. Our main contribution is to derive an optimal warping method to counter the adverse affects of clouds at the horizon, and learn a framework for future sky image prediction which better determines cloud evolution for longer time horizons.